Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, and with policy support, sales are expected to rebound in Q4 [2][4] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 33.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [2][6] - The heavy truck industry is experiencing a downturn, with Q3 sales down 18.2% year-on-year and 23.0% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company’s gross margin improved to 8.3% in Q3, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix improvements [6] - Policy measures announced in July 2024 are expected to support the heavy truck industry by accelerating the replacement of older vehicles [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 29.2% [2][6] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.4% [2][6] - The company’s market share in the heavy truck segment was 27.8%, showing a slight year-on-year decline but an improvement quarter-on-quarter [6] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 50.48 billion yuan, 61.44 billion yuan, and 70.66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 21.7%, and 15.0% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.55 yuan, based on a projected average PE of 15 times for comparable companies in 2024 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a revenue of 33.587 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 934 million yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin and cash flow have shown continuous improvement, with a gross margin of 7.7% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities reached 5.011 billion yuan, a 25.3% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company's sales performance outpaced the industry average, with a market share increase to 27.5% in the first three quarters, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The fourth quarter is expected to see a sequential improvement in the heavy truck industry [1]. - The new energy heavy truck market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of 48,500 units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 143.0%. The company sold 4,629 units, marking a 327.0% increase year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.08 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 405.5% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 1.17, 1.50, and 1.83 yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 8.5% in 2024, with a net profit margin projected at 2.8% [4][7].

1 证券代码：000951 证券简称：中国重汽 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20241108 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 投资者关系活动 | ■ 特定对象调研 | □ 分析师会议 | | 类别 | □ 媒体采访 | □ 业绩说明会 | | | □ 新闻发布会 | □ 路演活动 | | | □ 现场参观 | | | | □ 其他 | （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 国海证券 戴畅、徐鸣爽 | | | 及人员姓名 | | | | 时 间 | 2024 年 11 月 8 日 | 10:00-11:30 | | 地 点 | 公司办公室 | | | 上市公司 | 董事会秘书助理兼证券事务代表 张欣 | | | 接待人员姓名 | 投关专员 胡啸 | | | | | 公司董事会秘书助理兼证券事务代表张欣女士简要介绍 | ...

1 证券代码：000951 证券简称：中国重汽 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20241105 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 投资者关系活动 | ■ | 特定对象调研 | □ 分析师会议 | | 类别 | □ 媒体采访 | | □ 业绩说明会 | | | □ 新闻发布会 | | □ 路演活动 | | | □ 现场参观 | | | | | □ 其他 | | （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 平安证券 | 王德安 | 明涧投资 彭 勇 | | 及人员姓名 时 间 | 2024 年 11 | 月 5 日 | 10:00-11:00 | | | | | | | 地 点 | 公司办公室 | | | | 上市公司 | | | | | | | | 董事会秘书助理兼证券事务代表 张欣 | | ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 04 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：16.31 元 中国重汽（000951）汽车 目标价：——元（6 个月） Q3 利润高增长，盈利能力持续强化 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024三季报，24Q1-Q3实现营收 335.9亿元，同比+9.2%，归 母净利润 9.3 亿元，同比+42.5%。拆分单季度看，24Q3 实现营收 91.9 亿元， 同比-13.2%，环比-29.2%，归母净利润 3.2 亿元，同比+97.9%，环比-8.4%。 Q3利润同比高增，集团布局有望促进公司销量增长。2024Q3公司实现营收 91.9 亿元，同比-13.2%、环比-29.2%，归母净利润 3.2亿元，同比+97.9%，环比-8.4%。 公司 24Q1-Q3营业外收入 0.89亿元，同比+998.4%，主要是由于报告期内公司 对供应商的考核款收入增加所致。根据第一商用车网数据，重汽集团 24 年 1-9 月累计销售约 18.7 万辆，同比-2.0%，市占率达 27.5%，市占率+0.4pp。集团 对天然气板块的布 ...

相对沪深 300 表现 2024/11/01 市场数据 2024/11/01 2024 年 11 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2024 年 Q3 毛利率同比提升，经营杠杆助公司 Q3 扣非归母净利润同比高增 87.8% ——中国重汽（000951）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2024 年 10 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告，前三季度累计实 现营收 335.9 亿元，同比增长 9.2%，其中 Q3 为 91.9 亿元，同比/环比 分别下降 13.2%/29.2%；前三季度累计实现归母净利润 9.3 亿元，同比 增长 42.5%，其中 Q3 为 3.2 亿元，同比增长 97.9%。公司前三季度累计 实现扣非归母净利润 8.6 亿元，同比增长 34.1%，其中 Q3 为 2.7 亿元， 同比增长 87.8%。 投资要点: 表现 1M 3M 12M 2024 年 Q1-Q3 公司营收增速优于行业整体 据中汽协，2024 年 Q1-Q3 重卡 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·商用车 中国重汽（000951） 2024 年三季报点评：24Q3 利润超预期 2024 年 11 月 01 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 28,822 | 42,070 | 49,985 | 61,188 | 69,419 | | 同比（ % ） | (48.62) | 45.96 | 18.81 | 22.41 | 13.45 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 213.72 | 1,080.37 | 1,363.50 | 1,778.24 | 2,320.73 | | 同比（ % ） | (79.41) | 405.52 | 26.21 | 30.42 | 30.51 | | EPS- 最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 16.31 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 33.6 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 934 million CNY, up 42% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue performance in Q3 was better than the industry average, likely benefiting from an improved export structure [1]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the heavy truck market, with a stable market share and ongoing optimization of its core competitiveness [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 33.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 9% and a net profit of 934 million CNY, reflecting a 42% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 8.3%, with a net profit margin of 4.4% in Q3, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [1]. - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, projecting 1.26 billion CNY, 1.51 billion CNY, and 1.85 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 20%, and 22% [1][2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained a stable market share in the heavy truck sector, with a current share of approximately 14% [1]. - The product matrix is comprehensive, covering all types of heavy trucks, which positions the company as a leader in product variety [1]. - The company benefits from unique engine partnerships, allowing it to meet diverse customer needs effectively [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's market share in the gas vehicle segment and expects a doubling of sales in the new energy heavy truck market by 2024 [1]. - The overall industry sales forecast has been adjusted downward due to recent weak demand for heavy trucks, but the company's performance remains resilient [1].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 中国重汽（000951）公司季报点评 2024 年 11 月 01 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 31 日收盘价（元） ] | 16.78 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 12.55-19.12 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1175/1175 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 19714/19714 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《盈利稳健，注重股东回报》 | 2024.08.25 | | 《盈利能力增长潜力较大》 | 2024.05.02 | | 《利润弹性显现》 2024.03.27 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] -23.21% -13.21% -3.21% 6.79% 16.7 ...

证券研究报告 经营预测指标与估值 中国重汽 (000951 CH) Q3 利润超预期,低景气突出头部效应 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|----------| | | | | 年秦研究 | 李报点评 | | 2024 年 10 月 31 日 \| 中国内地 | 商用车 | 公司 Q3 实现归母净利润 3.15 亿元, yoy+98%, qoq-8%,超我们预期,毛 利率净利率同环比改善明显,在行业低景气创下本年度最佳单季度盈利表 现,主要系公司产品结构优化、出口持续向上、以及内部降本控费效果明显, 维持买入评级。 产品结构优化叠加内部降费控本,Q3盈利能力超预期 Q3 公司营收 91.86 亿元（yoy-13.15%，qoq-29.19%），归母净利 3.15 亿 元 (yoy+97.88%, qoq-8.44%), 收入同环比下滑主要系 Q3 重卡行业景气 度较低且终端竞争激烈,内销收入有所承压,根据中汽协,童卡批发销量 yoy-18%/qoq-27%。而公司在行业低景气阶段实现了超预期利润表现，Q3 毛利率 8.3%（yoy+1.7pct ...