M Global Foundation | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告对Civitas Resources、MEG Energy、Moss Creek Resources、Murphy Oil、Permian Resources、SM Energy、Talos Energy和Vermilion Energy等公司进行了评级 [1][3][5][9][21][33][49][55] - 报告对Civitas Resources、MEG Energy、Moss Creek Resources、Murphy Oil、Permian Resources、SM Energy和Vermilion Energy的评级为Neutral或Underweight [1][46][59][72][91][104][134] 报告的核心观点 - 报告认为,在当前地缘政治局势紧张的背景下,能源行业仍将受到关注,投资者需要密切关注行业波动 [2] - 报告认为,尽管存在一定的不确定性,但从历史上看,降低地缘政治风险溢价通常是正确的策略,特别是对债券投资者而言 [2] - 报告认为,在2025年,原油供给将大幅增加,导致价格大幅下跌,能源信贷处于近十年来最好的周期转折点 [3] 报告内容总结 对冲头寸概况 - 报告总结了大型、中型和小型公司的天然气、原油和天然气液体的对冲头寸 [6][11][15] - 报告指出,总体来看,公司对冲头寸较为谨慎,有助于应对潜在的价格波动 [6][11][15] 公司相对估值 - 报告对Civitas Resources、MEG Energy、Moss Creek Resources、Murphy Oil、Permian Resources、SM Energy和Talos Energy的相对估值进行了分析 [18][48][59][75][93][106][121] - 报告认为,Civitas Resources、SM Energy和Talos Energy的估值较为合理,但Moss Creek Resources和Permian Resources的估值较为紧张 [19][60][92][107] 公司财务数据和经营情况 - 报告详细分析了各公司的收入、利润、产量、成本、资产负债表等财务数据和经营情况 [24][50][61][77][94][108][139] - 报告认为,总体来看,这些公司的财务状况和经营情况较为稳健,有利于应对潜在的行业下行 [30][47][61][74][92][105][134] 公司风险分析 - 报告指出,各公司面临的主要风险包括商品价格波动、资本配置、并购整合等 [1][46][59][72][91][104][134] - 报告认为,尽管存在一定风险,但这些公司整体上仍具有较强的抗风险能力 [30][47][61][74][92][105][134]

Oil Markets Weekly This time, it feels different • We assume that attacking Iran's energy facilities would not be Israel's preferred course of action, but rather a secondary or even tertiary response to Iran's possible escalation • We also assign a low probability to the scenario where Iran targets energy flows from Gulf Arab states, given the recently upgraded diplomatic ties with GCC countries • Still, unlike October 2023 and April 2024, the current situation suggests that, given the low level of oil inve ...

North America Equity Research 04 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Exchange Volumes Update Week of Sep 27 - Oct 3: Middle East Escalations Drive Energy Derivatives Volumes | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

J P M O R G A N Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy 04 October 2024 Cross Asset Strategy Combining Positioning Dynamics and Price Momentum in Cross Asset Futures | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | ...

North America Equity Research 04 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Apple App Store Tracker: September Revenue Tracks Above Seasonal Trends, While C3Q24 Tracks In-Line; Supports Services Revenue Forecast for C3Q24 Overweight AAPL, AAPL US Price (03 Oct 24):$225.67 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M Update | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Byron Chen at Harmony Advisors Limited. China A-shares Monthly Wrap September: Strong rebound on stimulus combo announced and hope for more on the fiscal side Global Markets Strategy 01 October 2024 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

报告行业投资评级 报告给予行业的投资评级为Overweight[2] 报告的核心观点 1) 政策制定者已经开始更加紧迫地应对通缩,并更加愿意采取替代性政策选择[2] 2) 预计2024年4季度至2025年1季度会有温和的环比GDP增长改善,至5%季率从3%[3][18] 3) 通缩问题既有周期性因素也有结构性失衡,实现良性通胀和可持续增长将是一个漫长的过程[4][25][26] 4) 政策刺激的效果可能有限,需要更大规模的中央政府支持,尤其是在房地产和社会福利支出方面[16][24][26] 行业分析总结 1) 财政政策方面,预计将有1-2万亿元的补充预算,用于消费支持、社会支出和地方政府去杠杆[3][8][10] 2) 货币政策方面,预计还将有20个基点的利率下调和25-50个基点的存款准备金率下调[9] 3) 房地产政策方面,将进一步放松一线城市的购房限制,加快存量去化[9] 4) 社会动力指标接近历史触发政策转向的水平,反映就业等指标已经创下历史最差水平[11][12][13][14]