Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales increased in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5, and a channel inventory turnover ratio of 4 months [2][3][4] - The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 40% across all channels [2][3][6] - The management maintains a target of over 10% profit growth for 2025, with plans to transform 400-500 stores to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model by the end of 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the main brand's retail sales increased in the mid-single digits, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales showing low single-digit growth, primarily affected by foot traffic [4] - The retail discount for the main brand remained stable at 7.0-7.5, with an inventory turnover ratio of 4 months, indicating healthy inventory levels [5] Brand Growth - Both Saucony and Myle's brands experienced growth exceeding 40% in Q1 2025 [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth for the main brand and rapid growth for professional sports brands [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.402 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.600 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [10][14] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [9][10]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月17日 中国建筑（601668.SH） 优于大市 龙头优势凸显，现金流持续改善 收入小幅下滑，回款压力增大拖累盈利。2024 年公司实现营收 21871 亿元， 同比-3.5%，实现归母净利润 462 亿元，同比-14.9%。其中 2024Q4 公司实现 营业收入 5606 亿元，同比-5.7%，实现归母净利润 65 亿元，同比-38.9%。 2024 年公司归母净利润降幅大于收入降幅，主要原因有二：1）2024 年公司 计提信用/资产减值损失分别增加 7.5/50.3 亿元，同比+13.1%/+58.5%；2） 2024 年公司终止确认的金融资产金额有所增加，确认的终止确认损失增加 14.1 亿元，同比+84.4%，二者均与应收款质量下降相关。 新签订单逆势增长，地产销售彰显韧性。2024 年公司全年建筑业新签合同额 40808 亿元，同比+5.4%，其中房屋建筑新签 26516 亿元，同比-1.4%，基础 设施新签 14149 亿元，同比+21.1%，境内新签 38697 亿元，同比+4.7%，境 外新签 2110 亿元，同比+20.3%。地产方面，2024 年公司实现合 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [5][36][37] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10] - The company has faced short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased impairment provisions and a decrease in gross profit margin [1][15] - Despite a challenging market environment, the company is expected to stabilize and recover as high land cost, low margin projects are completed [3][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but net profit fell by 36% to 4 billion yuan due to 6 billion yuan in impairment provisions [1][15] - The gross profit margin for the company was 15.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][15] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.19 yuan per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1][15] Sales and Development - The company maintained a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the sales area dropped by 24% [2][20] - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, maintaining a healthy financial position [22] - The company's comprehensive financing cost was 2.99%, reduced by 48 basis points from the beginning of the year, indicating a strong financing advantage [22] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][24][28] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as the company completes its low-margin projects and stabilizes its financials [3][36] Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35] - Relative valuation shows that the company's 2025 dynamic PE is 17.2, which is at a premium compared to comparable companies with an average PE of 12.5 [36]

用友网络（600588.SH） 优于大市 核心产品 BIP3 占比提升，AI 产品有望推动业绩复苏 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月17日 计算机·软件开发 证券分析师：熊莉 全年业绩同比承压，四季度利润下滑较大。2024 年公司实现收入 91.53 亿元， 同比-6.57%，实现归母净利润-20.61 亿元，同比-113.13%。单 Q4 来看，公 司实现收入 34.15 亿元，同比-16.48%，实现归母净利润-6.06 亿元，同比 -1058.37%。公司收入承压主要由于：1）部分客户需求阶段性延后，导致业 绩表现承压；2）推进订阅业务模式，对短期整体收入造成影响。除上述因 素外，公司利润还受到人员调整、减值损失等非经常因素影响。公司当前对 利润的不理影响逐步出清，净利润有望触底回升。 核心产品占比提升，大型客户持续导入。2024 年公司云服务业务收入 68.5 亿元，其中核心产品 BIP3 实现收入 31.4 亿元，占整体收入比例同比+2.4 个 百分点。分客户来看，中型企业云服务收入同比增长 7.9%，YonSuite 续费 率提升至 95%；小微企业实现云订阅收入 6.6 亿元，同比+34.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market index by more than 10% [5][36][37]. Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10]. - Despite a 36% decline in net profit year-on-year for 2024, the company has adequately provisioned for asset and credit impairments, which totaled approximately 6 billion yuan, reflecting a 150% increase from the previous year [1][15]. - The company maintains a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, consistently staying within the green zone of the "three red lines" policy [22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 4 billion yuan, down 36% [1][4][15]. - The gross profit margin for the company was reported at 15.6%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][15]. Sales and Development - The company recorded a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a 25% decrease year-on-year, while the sales area fell by 24% [2][20]. - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20]. Financial Health and Cost of Capital - The company has a comprehensive financing cost of 2.99%, which is 48 basis points lower than the beginning of the year, maintaining an industry-leading level [22]. - The company successfully secured 9.2 billion yuan in operational property loans and raised 15.5 billion yuan in public market financing, with the lowest coupon rates in the industry [22]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][28][31]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as high land cost, low margin projects are completed, leading to a stabilization in earnings [3][36]. Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35]. - Relative valuation suggests that the company's valuation is comparable to peer companies, with a 2025 dynamic PE ratio of 17.2, which reflects a premium due to the quality of land and strong financing background [36].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月17日 宏观经济宏观月报 3 月内外需均上冲，服务业修复将增强"以内补外"效果 2025 年 4 月 16 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 3 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、2025 年一季度国内生产总值 318758 亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.4%，持平去年四季度； 2、3 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 7.7%，比 1-2 月份加快 1.8 个百 分点； 3、3 月份，社会消费品零售总额 40940 亿元，同比增长 5.9%，比 1-2 月份 加快 1.9 个百分点； 4、3 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）103174 亿元，同比增长 4.2%， 比 1-2 月加快 0.1 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资同比 增长 8.3%； 5、3 月份，进出口总额 37663 亿元，同比增长 6.0%。其中，出口 22515 亿 元，增长 13.5%；进口 15148 亿元，下降 3.5%； 6、3 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.2%，较上月回落 0.2 个百分点，持平 上年同月。 3 月国内经济增速约 5.9%，明显高于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][35] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 15% in 2024, with a non-GAAP net profit turning positive [1] - The increase in the proportion of colored yarn and improved capacity utilization in Vietnam are key drivers for profit recovery [4][35] - Despite potential pressures from raw material price declines, the company anticipates that the increased share of colored yarn will help mitigate some negative impacts [4][35] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 79.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with yarn sales reaching 242,300 tons, up 11.8% [1] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve by 1.55 percentage points to 10.20% due to order recovery and increased colored yarn sales [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 95.05% [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4, the company reported revenue of 1.867 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, but faced a gross margin decline due to increased wage provisions [2] - The net profit for Q4 was a loss of 2.49 million yuan, although the loss was narrower compared to the previous year [2] Segment Analysis - Revenue from colored yarn increased by 29.1% to 4.056 billion yuan, accounting for 55% of total revenue, while gross margin for this segment was 11.22% [3] - The Vietnam base contributed 5.997 billion yuan in revenue, with a net profit of 504 million yuan, marking a significant improvement [3] Profit Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward due to uncertainties in tariff policies and declining cotton prices, projecting net profits of 460 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 640 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][35] - The expected growth rates for net profit are 12.8%, 16.7%, and 19.1% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][35] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.4 [5][36] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 4.3% in 2024, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [5][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][25]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, with projected revenue of 14.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, and a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.3% [1][9]. - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to the scale effects from the rapid growth of electric two-wheelers, lawn mowers, and all-terrain vehicles, leading to enhanced profitability [2][14]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and enhancing its market position in the smart electric two-wheeler sector, with plans to launch multiple new products in 2024 [3][19]. - The introduction of new products in the lawn mower and all-terrain vehicle segments is expected to open up new growth opportunities for the company [4][21]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates significant revenue growth driven by the launch of new products, with electric two-wheelers projected to generate 7.211 billion yuan in revenue, a 70.4% increase year-on-year [9]. - The net profit growth rate is expected to outpace revenue growth due to improved sales volume and cost efficiencies [9][14]. Margin Improvement - The gross margin for electric two-wheelers is projected to be 21.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin for the company is expected to reach 28.2%, up 1.3 percentage points [2][14]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to improve to 7.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [2][14]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the electric two-wheeler market with the introduction of several new models, aiming to solidify its market leadership [3][19]. - The launch of the Navimow X3 intelligent lawn mower is expected to significantly enhance the company's market presence in the lawn care segment [20]. - The all-terrain vehicle segment is also being expanded with new models that cater to various applications, which are anticipated to become new growth drivers [4][21]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been revised upward, with expected net profits of 1.647 billion yuan, 2.150 billion yuan, and 2.625 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][25]. - The earnings per share are projected to be 2.30 yuan, 3.00 yuan, and 3.66 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 18, and 15 [5][25].

风险提示：政策推进节奏不及预期，行业价格战，国内及海外需求疲软，新 品发布及销售不及预期，库存水平过高，关税、汇率及运费波动。 证券研究报告 | 2025年04月17日 九号公司-WD（689009.SH） 优于大市 2024 年利润高增长，电动两轮车、割草机等业务有望快速放量 2024 年营业收入及净利润快速增长。九号公司 2024 年营业收入 142.0 亿 元，同比增长 38.9%，2016-2024 年复合增速 36.9%；2024 年净利润 10.8 亿元，同比增长 81.3%，2020-2024 年复合增速 96.3%，受益于电动两轮 车、割草机、全地形车等较快放量，营收及利润高增长，净利润增速高 于收入增速，主要是销量提升产生规模效应，利润率改善。 2024 年利润率改善，费用率下降。2024 年电动两轮车、全地形车、机器 人业务快速放量产生规模效应，电动两轮车毛利率 21.1%，同比增长 2.1 个百分点，机器人毛利率 51.1%，同比增长 2.1 个百分点，2024 年公司 综合毛利率 28.2%，同比增长 1.3 个百分点，净利率 7.7%，同比增长 1.8 个百分点。新业务放量促进销售、 ...