ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab KeyCorp BNS stake supports KEY shares, but greater visibility needed to determine upside Capital injection solves for near term capital, earnings headwinds KEY shares handily outperformed today (+9.1% vs. -0.5% for the BKX) after announcing a $2.8bn strategic investment in the bank by Scotiabank (14.9% pro forma ownership) at a premium to recent its valuation, though retreated from early trading levels that neared the $17.17 price implied by the deal. We th ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告给予OMV公司的投资评级为Neutral [30] 报告的核心观点 俄罗斯天然气供应风险再次浮现 - 近期俄罗斯天然气进入奥地利的风险有所增加,对OMV公司的市场情绪产生负面影响 [2][3] - 但与2022年相比,OMV公司已经采取措施从其他渠道多元化天然气供应,做好了准备 [4] - 即使出现供应中断,OMV公司的中游业务损失也将被上游业务利润的增加所抵消 [5] OMV公司已做好应对天然气供应中断的准备 - OMV公司每年从俄罗斯进口60TWh的天然气,但与2022年相比,已经完全多元化了供应渠道 [4] - 包括从德国、意大利的运输能力(40TWh)、挪威的股权气(25TWh)、第三方供应商(20TWh)以及鹿特丹GATE码头的LNG(36TWh) [4] 财务影响有限 - OMV公司以月度合同价格销售天然气,因此供应中断的财务影响仅限于现货价格与合同价格之间的差异 [5] - 每月购买5TWh俄罗斯天然气,每5欧元/MWh的现货价格变动将影响税前利润2500万欧元,相当于2025年预测EBIT的0.5% [5] - 但这将被上游利润的增加所抵消,同样的价格变动将使上游税前利润增加2.05亿欧元 [5]

Fast Take Tupy SA Headline 2Q24 Sales -5% YoY (-5% vs UBSe), adj EBITDA +14% vs UBSe, mg at 14% (+3pp YoY), NI -67% vs UBSe Our Take Revenue continues to be impacted by lower volumes (mainly off-road abroad) while the company showed good cost control resulting in the EBITDA beat and margin expansion. The net income miss is explained by FX hedge mark to market expenses ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Americas Auto Parts 12-month rating Neutral 12m price target R$25.50 Price (13 Au ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Alinma Bank SJSC ALINMA Post 2Q24: Higher growth guidance 2Q24 2% profit beat on better revenue, with updated guidance Alinma's 2Q24 net profit was 2% above Visible Alpha consensus, driven by a 2% beat on NII and a 3% beat on noninterest income, with asset quality broadly in line with expectations. On the call it improved guidance for loan growth (from mid to high teens), and cost of risk (from 65-75bps to 60-70bps), but lowered it for cost/income (from c30 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Global Tobacco MSA settlement in Massachusetts Equities Global Tobacco Faham Baig Analyst faham.baig@ubs.com +44-20-7568 3966 $600m Massachusetts settlement could be paid through funds in escrow On Monday 12 August 2024, the Massachusetts Attorney General's Office (see here) said it had "reached a $600 million settlement with major tobacco manufacturers, marking the largest AGO resolution in recent history. In addition to the $600 million that wi ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告给予Crest Nicholson股票"买入"评级,目标价307p [3] 报告的核心观点 - Bellway宣布不会对Crest Nicholson提出正式收购要约,Crest Nicholson股价下跌18%至217p,目前股价处于历史低位,具有较高的投资价值 [2][3] - Crest Nicholson将在新任CEO Martyn Clark的领导下独立经营 [3] - 报告预计Crest Nicholson未来12个月股价将上涨41%,股息收益率为1.4%,总体收益率为42.4%,超过市场平均水平33% [13] 行业概况 - Crest Nicholson是一家中型英国住宅开发商,主要业务集中在英格兰南部和中部地区,2023财年交付2,020套房产,平均售价347,000英镑 [14] 财务数据总结 - 2024财年,Crest Nicholson预计收入590百万英镑,EBIT利润34百万英镑,每股收益7.91便士 [7] - 2025财年,Crest Nicholson预计收入637百万英镑,EBIT利润54百万英镑,每股收益13.66便士 [7] - 2026财年,Crest Nicholson预计收入709百万英镑,EBIT利润77百万英镑,每股收益20.35便士 [7] 估值分析 - Crest Nicholson目前股价对应2024财年账面净值(TNAV)的0.72倍,低于历史平均水平1.28倍和行业平均1.3倍,具有较高的投资价值 [3][9] - 报告给予Crest Nicholson"买入"评级,目标价307p,较当前股价218p有41%的上涨空间 [3]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Bezeq Increased risk, slower 2024; down to Neutral Less attractive risk/reward currently We cut Bezeq to Neutral with a new NIS4.4PT, from Buy and NIS6.1. Bezeq has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector at c1.6x ND/EBITDA (c2.7x sector) and defensive returns with a 70% 2024E net profit payout (c7% div. yield vs. c5.5% sector). The mid-term case remains attractive with 2026 catalysts of FTTH capex decline (2pp/ sales or more vs. 2024 peak), satel ...

报告行业投资评级 - 维持买入评级 [5] 报告的核心观点 - 公司于2021年10月通过与Cocokara Fine的合并而成立 [2] - 预计从2023财年下半年开始,通过人员配置、门店开设和物流优化等方面的逐步改善,将转化为盈利能力的提升 [2] - 关注外国游客到访日本数量恢复带来的利好 [2] - 中期内关注自有品牌等差异化产品销售带来的同店销售增长、毛利率改善以及行业整合举措带来的效益 [2] 财务数据总结 - 预计2025财年销售收入为10546亿日元,营业利润为774亿日元,营业利润率为7.3% [3] - 预计2026财年销售收入为10873亿日元,营业利润为850亿日元,营业利润率为7.8% [3] - 预计2025财年免税销售额为716.6亿日元,同比增长63.6% [3] - 预计2025财年同店销售增长1.0% [3] 估值分析 - 将目标价从2960日元下调至2730日元 [4] - 目标价对应2025财年每股收益的21.5倍市盈率 [4]

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 US Economic Data NFIB: Stronger small business sentiment Economics Americas Small business optimism rises with expectations for economic improvement The NFIB small business optimism index rose 2.2 points to 93.7 in July, ahead of our estimate of 91.9 but well above consensus expectations for the index to be unchanged at 91.5. This marks the fifth consecutive month of improvement in the index but from a low base, with the level of the index remaining below its ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Equities Japan Retail Sector July 2024 sales (announced 9 and 13 August): SEJ's same-store sales continue to seesaw Japan Retail Welcia HD (3141): Sales missed the company's plan again in July Monthly sales (end of month, FY2/25): Group same-store sales rose 0.3% yoy, with customer numbers down 1.0% yoy and sales per customer up 1.3% yoy. By category, product sales fell 2.4% yoy (pharmaceuticals -0.5%, hygiene and nursing care -8.8%, counselling cosmetics -4.2 ...