Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Seven West Media UBS SnapShot: 2H24 Result ONE LINER Miss to consensus. Dividend cut, top line in Sep/Oct tracking slightly below. 2H24 KEY NUMBERS Revenue $640m (UBSe $631m, VA cons. $645m); EBITDA $63m (UBSe $52m, cons. $71m); Reported NPAT $24m (UBSe $6m, cons. $23m); Capex -$14m (UBSe -$23m, cons -$24m); No dividend declared (UBSe Ocps, cons. 2cps). 2H24 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS 1. 'Seven' Total TV" rev $554m (UBSe $534m, cons $559m), EBITDA $56m (UBSe ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Region Group Growth pushed out again Limited growth into FY25 disappointing but more positives emerging RGN's FY24 FFOps of 15.4c was -2% below guidance and FY25 guidance of 15.5c - 5% below UBSe (-3% vs. cons.) with ongoing property expense inflation a headwind in both FY24/25. In addition to setting out a target for comp NOI growth of +3%, guidance also allowed for several 'one-off' items including lost rent from centre repositioning, line fee drag on und ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告未提供行业整体的投资评级 [3] 报告的核心观点 - 报告主要列举了最近UBS对部分公司的评级、目标价格和每股收益预测的变化 [3][4][5][6][7] - 报告未提供行业整体的核心观点 [3] 行业概况 - 报告未提供行业整体的概况 [3] 行业投资机会 - 报告未提供行业整体的投资机会 [3] 行业风险 - 报告未提供行业整体的风险 [3]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab James Hardie Industries Slow recovery but foundation solid Soft 2QFY25 makes bridge to FY25 incrementally harder We see the key takeaways from today's result as: 1) FY25 unchanged but harder with tough 2Q. JHX's 2QFY25 guidance came in softer than expected (midpoint vols -7% albeit with some large builder inventory adj impact). While declining rates will clearly improve the outlook, we see any improvement as unlikely to arrive in time for FY25 earnings and ...

行业投资评级 报告给出了中国经济的整体投资评级。[5] 报告的核心观点 1. 2024年GDP增速预计为4.9%,增速较2023年有所放缓。[29] 2. 房地产市场持续下行,销售、开工和投资均有10%左右的下滑。[30][36] 3. 消费复苏乏力,主要受到收入、信心和财富效应等因素的拖累。[32] 4. 基建投资和制造业投资将有所放缓,分别增长5-6%和5-6%。[33][34] 5. 出口保持韧性,2024年名义出口增长3.5%。[35] 分行业总结 房地产行业 1. 房地产市场正经历有史以来最严重的下行周期,2023年销售、开工和投资将分别下降9%、20%和10%。[30][36] 2. 2024年房地产市场仍将持续下行,销售、开工和投资将进一步下降5-10%、15-20%和5-10%。[30][36] 3. 房地产行业对GDP、银行、地方政府财政和地方政府融资平台债务具有重要影响。[30] 4. 政策正在采取措施支持房地产销售,包括白名单项目、更多支持开发商融资等,但去库存进展有限。[31] 消费行业 1. 线下消费活动基本恢复正常,服务业表现优于商品零售。但整体消费水平仍低于疫情前水平。[32] 2. 主要影响因素包括收入、信心、财富效应以及有限的财政支持。[32] 3. 2020-2022年累计多出4-4.5万亿元的居民储蓄,2023-2024年仍将有所增加,除第三季度外。[32][105] 出口行业 1. 2020-2022年出口保持强劲增长,2023年有所下滑,2024年将再次反弹,增长3.5%。[35][110][111] 2. 出口增长的支撑因素包括美国经济韧性、全球科技周期以及供应链调整。[35][124][125][126] 3. 中美贸易摩擦对出口的影响有限,主要体现在供应链重组。[128][129] 基建和制造业投资 1. 2024年基建投资增速将放缓至5-6%,中央政府和政策性银行支持力度加大,但地方财政和地方政府融资平台融资能力有限。[33][143][144][146] 2. 制造业投资将保持5-6%的增速,主要受益于"高质量"行业,而房地产供应链相关行业表现较弱。[34] 3. 工业利润改善主要来自于收入增长,而非利润率改善。工业库存去化进度缓慢。[162][163][164]

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Australian Economic Comment RBA Hauser hawkish: lifts neutral & NAIRU. WPI ticks down to 0.8% q/q, but y/y holds 4.1% RBA Deputy Hauser hawkish: effectively lifts neutral rate & NAIRU estimates RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's speech was on the hawkish side; especially relative to prior comments, which were initially more balanced on the RBA's 'dual mandate' of an inflation target as well as full employment. 1) Hauser characterised inflation as persistent, and hig ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告维持Freightways (FRW.NZ)的12个月中性评级 [4] 报告的核心观点 - 短期内FRW的估值已大幅上涨20%,但未来增长主要依赖于利润率改善 [1] - 2025财年NZ快递包裹业务量仍面临下行压力,但定价提升和成本控制将抵消大部分影响 [2][3] - 2026财年业绩增长有望加速,得益于快递包裹业务量和利润率的双重提升 [3] - 分析师下调了2025和2026财年的盈利预测,主要反映了NZ快递包裹业务量下降和冷藏业务利润率恢复较慢 [3][26] 分部业务表现 - NZ快递包裹业务:2025财年受到业务量下滑的影响,但定价提升将抵消大部分影响 [27] - 信息管理业务:2025和2026财年利润率有望改善 [27] - 冷藏业务:2025和2026财年利润率恢复较慢 [27] - 澳洲快递业务:短期内面临一定压力 [27]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Spot On SA Miners—momentum & yield if spot prevails South Africa Mining 8% downside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings, on average If spot commodity prices prevail, we calculate upside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings for the gold miners (+32%) and the SA diversifieds (+1%) on an average market cap-weighted basis, while we calculate downside risk to for the PGM miners (- 15%) and dual-listeds (-21%) on an average market cap-weighted basis ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Chinese Shipbuilders Read-Throughs from Yangzijiang Shipbuilding H124 results Equities China Industrial Yangzijiang Shipbuilding disclosed H124 results Yangzijiang Shipbuilding disclosed its H124 results yesterday after market, and the market reacted positively today, with the share price of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding +12% intraday. Company's H124 revenue grew 15% YoY and 2% HoH, and GPM improved by 8ppts YoY and1ppt HoH. What beat market expectati ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Americas Insurance US Insurance Wrapping up 2Q24 Earnings Season Brokers and Personal Lines Reverse Last Week's Gains P&C insurers we cover were down 0.8% over the week, underperforming both Fins (+0.8%) and the S&P 500 (~flat). Brokers were down 1.9% with RYAN (-5%) and GSHD (-4.9%). Personal lines were also down with KMPR (-5.3%) and ALL (-3.3%). Commercial lines we cover were flat on average with WRB (+3.5%) and AIZ (+2.4%) offset by JRVR (-6.4% ...