Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Challenger Strong P&L momentum into FY25 Results broadly ahead of market expectations We think CGF's FY24 result went a long way to addressing market concerns for Life margins, capital and business quality. ROE has finally emerged from the COVID hangover and we expect to exceed internal targets through FY25-26. Cost control was also a key feature of the FY24 result (cost ratio 4ppts lower) and we see further earnings upside from this source. Guidance appears t ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Nihon Kohden Await rebound in market credibility Lowering price target and estimates We are lowering our price target for Nihon Kohden from ¥3,000 to ¥2,180 to reflect cuts to our estimates and base PER. We are revising our estimates based on changes to our forex assumptions (from ¥150/$ to ¥145 and ¥160/€ to ¥155) and cuts to our sales estimates for Japan and China. Our new target PER of 20.2X is a 10% discount to our previous multiple (the 22.5X average f ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告维持Freightways (FRW.NZ)的12个月中性评级 [4] 报告的核心观点 - 短期内FRW的估值已大幅上涨20%,但未来增长主要依赖于利润率改善 [1] - 2025财年NZ快递包裹业务量仍面临下行压力,但定价提升和成本控制将抵消大部分影响 [2][3] - 2026财年业绩增长有望加速,得益于快递包裹业务量和利润率的双重提升 [3] - 分析师下调了2025和2026财年的盈利预测,主要反映了NZ快递包裹业务量下降和冷藏业务利润率恢复较慢 [3][26] 分部业务表现 - NZ快递包裹业务:2025财年受到业务量下滑的影响,但定价提升将抵消大部分影响 [27] - 信息管理业务:2025和2026财年利润率有望改善 [27] - 冷藏业务:2025和2026财年利润率恢复较慢 [27] - 澳洲快递业务:短期内面临一定压力 [27]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Spot On SA Miners—momentum & yield if spot prevails South Africa Mining 8% downside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings, on average If spot commodity prices prevail, we calculate upside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings for the gold miners (+32%) and the SA diversifieds (+1%) on an average market cap-weighted basis, while we calculate downside risk to for the PGM miners (- 15%) and dual-listeds (-21%) on an average market cap-weighted basis ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Chinese Shipbuilders Read-Throughs from Yangzijiang Shipbuilding H124 results Equities China Industrial Yangzijiang Shipbuilding disclosed H124 results Yangzijiang Shipbuilding disclosed its H124 results yesterday after market, and the market reacted positively today, with the share price of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding +12% intraday. Company's H124 revenue grew 15% YoY and 2% HoH, and GPM improved by 8ppts YoY and1ppt HoH. What beat market expectati ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告给予Xylem Inc买入评级,目标价165美元 [2][3] 报告的核心观点 - Xylem是领先的纯水务公司,具有中单位数以上的增长前景,且相对同行更加抗周期 [3] - Xylem有机会通过定价策略和生产效率提升,每年扩大约100个基点的EBITDA利润率 [16][17][18] - 美国和其他发达经济体的老旧水基础设施、全球城市化趋势以及水质监管等因素将为Xylem带来长期增长机遇 [3][4][15][18] 行业概况 水基础设施 - 美国EPA估计未来20年(2021-2040年)国家饮用水基础设施融资需求约6250亿美元 [18] - 双边基础设施法案已拨款超过500亿美元用于改善美国水基础设施 [4][18] - 城市化趋势将推动新兴市场对水基础设施的大量投资需求 [155][156][157][158] 水质监管 - 美国EPA将对6种PFAS化合物制定最高污染物限值标准,预计将有约4100-6700家供水系统需采取行动 [148][149] - 政府支持计划如双边基础设施法案将提供90亿美元资金用于帮助受PFAS污染的供水系统 [153] 公司业务 - Xylem的水基础设施和水务服务业务(占2023年销售额60%)将是PFAS监管趋势的主要受益者 [136] - 测量与控制解决方案业务(占2023年销售额20%)受益于先进计量基础设施和非收益性水的需求增长 [228] - 应用水业务(占2023年销售额20%)受益于城市化和工业需求增长 [217]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Americas Insurance US Insurance Wrapping up 2Q24 Earnings Season Brokers and Personal Lines Reverse Last Week's Gains P&C insurers we cover were down 0.8% over the week, underperforming both Fins (+0.8%) and the S&P 500 (~flat). Brokers were down 1.9% with RYAN (-5%) and GSHD (-4.9%). Personal lines were also down with KMPR (-5.3%) and ALL (-3.3%). Commercial lines we cover were flat on average with WRB (+3.5%) and AIZ (+2.4%) offset by JRVR (-6.4% ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab China Consumer Staples Sector Channel check with a frozen food distributor in East China Product upgrades and pre-prepared dishes are key industry growth drivers We hosted a conference call with a frozen food distributor in East China to track recent industry trends. Overall, the distributor stays optimistic about the growth potential of frozen food industry, primarily driven by the increase in ASPs due to product upgrades, while volume growth is relatively ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Peloton Interactive Inc July Web Traffic for Interactive Visits down -12% YOY; Q4 Preview July is down less than June-May declines of -17-19% Our analysis of total interactive visits to the Peloton website, with interactive visits defined as total visits excluding bounced visits (those that enter a site, take no action and then leave), shows July web traffic is down -12%, improving from steeper declines in May down -19% and J ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Natura &Co Sharp loss, despite improved results in LatAm; Avon Chapter 11 Avon's chapter 11 drives sharp net loss Although 2Q adj. EBITDA of 804m came-in just slightly below of expectations (UBSe R$827m), net loss came-in at a sharp -R$859m (vs. UBSe at +R$80m), due to a +R $725m write-off in Avon-related deferred taxes, as the company announced the Chapter 11 request of its subsidiary Avon Products, holding of the Avon beauty brand. As part of t ...