报告行业投资评级 - 报告给出了行业的整体投资评级 [1] 报告的核心观点 - 报告预测了未来几年主要经济体的GDP增长率、通胀率、政策利率等关键指标 [9][10][11] - 报告还预测了主要国家和地区的财政收支、经常账户、外汇储备等数据 [42][46][47] 报告内容总结 经济活动和就业 - 报告预测了主要国家和地区的GDP增长率、私人消费、政府消费、固定资本形成等指标 [21][53][125] - 报告还预测了主要国家和地区的失业率和工业生产指数 [30][134][156] 物价、利率和货币 - 报告预测了主要国家和地区的通胀率、广义货币供应增长、银行信贷增长等指标 [32][134][156] - 报告还预测了主要国家和地区的政策利率和长期国债收益率 [40][134][156] 财政账户 - 报告预测了主要国家和地区的财政收支平衡、财政收入和支出占GDP的比重 [42][157] - 报告还预测了主要国家和地区的公共债务水平 [46][157] 国际收支 - 报告预测了主要国家和地区的贸易收支、经常账户、外汇储备等指标 [47][157][158] - 报告还预测了主要国家和地区的对外投资净额和国际投资头寸 [47][158]

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Economic Perspectives Fed & US outlook update Updating our rate call to reflect FOMC risks reassessment We expect three 25 bp rate cuts this year, one at each of the September, November and December FOMC meetings. We expect this to be well signaled in the September FOMC meeting materials and the Summary of Economic Projections. We expect Chair Powell will lay out a case for an orderly withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness in a speech at Jackson H ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Mabuchi Motor Results above estimates, but monitoring Europe/ US auto slowdown and cost increases Q: How did the results compare with expectations? Q2 (Apr-Jun) OP was ¥5.3bn, 15% above our forecast (¥4.6bn) and 20% above the consensus (¥4.4bn). The main reasons for the discrepancy versus our forecast were the weaker yen and higher than estimated volumes for the life & industrial products segment. In this segment, the health and medical areas per ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Economic Perspectives July CPI recap: Ongoing progress Headline CPI +0.15%: 12-month inflation edges down to 2.9% The headline CPI increased 15bp (seasonally-adjusted) in July with 12-month CPI inflation edging down from 3.0% in June to 2.9% in July — its lowest level since May 2021. Energy prices were essentially unchanged, and both food prices (+16bp) and core prices (+17bp) increased at moderate paces that would not be out of line with their pre-pande ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告将2024年波兰GDP增长预测上调至3%,并预计2025年和2026年将进一步加速至3.4%和3.6% [3] - 这一预测与市场共识和波兰央行的预测一致,但对2025-26年更为保守 [3] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年第二季度GDP增长强劲,超出预期,推动了对全年GDP增长的上调 [3] - 第二季度GDP增长可能主要由库存和消费拉动 [4] - 7月电力和天然气价格上涨低于预期,有助于7月通胀数据的下行惊喜 [5][7] - 政府可能会在2025年继续采取措施限制能源价格上涨,这将使通胀峰值低于6% [7] 分类总结 GDP增长 - 2024年GDP增长预测上调至3%,2025年和2026年将进一步加速至3.4%和3.6% [3] - 2024年第二季度GDP增长强劲,超出预期,推动了对全年GDP增长的上调 [3] - 第二季度GDP增长可能主要由库存和消费拉动 [4] 通胀 - 7月电力和天然气价格上涨低于预期,有助于7月通胀数据的下行惊喜 [5][7] - 政府可能会在2025年继续采取措施限制能源价格上涨,这将使通胀峰值低于6% [7]

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab European Economic Perspectives next week Sweden: Core inflation down, Riksbank to cut This report has been prepared by UBS AG. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 8. Economics Riksbank to cut rates on 20 August despite upside surprise in headline inflation July headline inflation increased more than expected by us and consensus to 1.7% y/y (from 1.3% in Jun ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 August 2024 Equity Strategy Japan Japan Equity Strategy & Thematic Research Prime Minister Kishida to resign; what will the stock market impact be? A new LDP leader to be chosen in a presidential election in September On the morning of 14 August, it was reported that Prime Minister Kishida will not run for president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the next party election, and there was an official announcement to that effect at a press conference at 11:30AM (Prim ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto-tech Sector July US CPI: Both new and used vehicle prices down only slightly mom Japan Automobiles Kohei Takahashi Analyst kohei.takahashi@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6172 Moeka Xu Associate Analyst moeka.xu@ubs.com +81-3-5293 3000 New car prices and cost of ownership remain at high levels July US CPI data show new vehicle prices down 0.1% mom and down 1.1% yoy, while used car prices were down 1.1% mom and 10.9% yoy (Figures 2– ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Pigeon A better than expected recovery in China market share Q: How did the results compare with expectations? Q2 (April-June) OP came in at ¥3.1bn (+0.6% yoy), beating our forecast (¥2.89bn) by 7% and the consensus (¥2.82bn) by 10%. Compared to management's plans, OP was in line on a local currency basis, and including forex effects in China and the Lansinoh business, budget was exceeded by ¥430mn. In yen terms, sales rose across all regions and the squeeze o ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告对大众汽车(Volkswagen)、通用汽车(GM)等主要汽车制造商的评级为"卖出"、"买入"和"中性"[79][84] - 报告对大陆(Continental)、丹尼逊(Denso)等主要汽车零部件供应商的评级为"买入"和"中性"[26][43] 报告的核心观点 汽车制造商表现 - 韩国汽车制造商在过去12个月和最近一个月的表现优于其他地区[13][14] - 日本和中国汽车制造商在过去12个月和最近一个月的表现相对较弱[13][14] 汽车零部件供应商表现 - 欧洲汽车零部件供应商在过去12个月和最近一个月的表现优于其他地区[18][19] - 美国和韩国汽车零部件供应商在过去12个月和最近一个月的表现相对较弱[18][19] 美国电动车市场 - 特斯拉在美国电动车市场份额有所下降,但整体电动车销量仍在增长[57][58][59] - 本田等其他车企的电动车销量表现良好,但可能需要更多政府补贴支持[63][64] 全球汽车市场 - 除中国外,其他主要市场的电动车/插电式混合动力车销量持续增长[49][50][51][52][53][54] - 二手车价格下降趋势有所放缓,新车价格维持高位[66][67][70][71]