ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab China Consumer Staples Sector Channel check with a frozen food distributor in East China Product upgrades and pre-prepared dishes are key industry growth drivers We hosted a conference call with a frozen food distributor in East China to track recent industry trends. Overall, the distributor stays optimistic about the growth potential of frozen food industry, primarily driven by the increase in ASPs due to product upgrades, while volume growth is relatively ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Peloton Interactive Inc July Web Traffic for Interactive Visits down -12% YOY; Q4 Preview July is down less than June-May declines of -17-19% Our analysis of total interactive visits to the Peloton website, with interactive visits defined as total visits excluding bounced visits (those that enter a site, take no action and then leave), shows July web traffic is down -12%, improving from steeper declines in May down -19% and J ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Natura &Co Sharp loss, despite improved results in LatAm; Avon Chapter 11 Avon's chapter 11 drives sharp net loss Although 2Q adj. EBITDA of 804m came-in just slightly below of expectations (UBSe R$827m), net loss came-in at a sharp -R$859m (vs. UBSe at +R$80m), due to a +R $725m write-off in Avon-related deferred taxes, as the company announced the Chapter 11 request of its subsidiary Avon Products, holding of the Avon beauty brand. As part of t ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Softlines Retail Expert Call Recap: Specialty Apparel Retail: Backto-School Starts Strong Specialty Apparel Retail industry sales growth trends have accelerated: The market is wondering how the Back-to-School (BTS) season has started for mallbased specialty apparel retailers. To address this question, we hosted a call on 8/9/24 with a senior leader of a specialty retail organization focused mainly on teen retail and fast fashion. The key conclusion is BT ...

Powered by UBS Evidence Lab ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab YES | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------|---------------------------------------|--------------|-------- ...

First Read ISS A/S H1 profits in-line, but with some mixed details Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Q2 organic growth and H1 profits were broadly in-line with expectations, with guidance items reaffirmed and a modest buyback increase. Some of the details (e.g. outlook for net new contracts being lowered for FY'24e, despite some recent wins) were more mixed. Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: Organic growth of +5.8% y/y in Q2'24 was in-line with consensus and similar ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab HF Sinclair Corp Call takeaways and Adjusting Estimates Call takeaways DINO provided 3Q24 throughput guidance of 570-600mb/d, this takes into account turnaround at the Parco refinery as well as turnaround at El Dorado which was moved from 4Q24 to 3Q24. DINO has signed new contracts to convert 150 stores to its branded wholesale sites, which translates into expected growth of ~10% over the next 6 months to 12 months. DINO looking to add more branded location ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Asset Managers IVZ and BLK stand alone with inflows in a choppy but upwardly trending tape Broad beta tailwinds partially offset by outflows, ex. IVZ & BLK July AUM reports reflected mixed markets (Nasdaq down 0.8% and S&P 500 up 1.1% in July), but total AUM higher across the board. Highlights: 1. IVZ reported robust inflows in July (+$10.8bn), primarily in equities (+$7.4bn) and fixed income (+$2.2bn). This has become a positive trend for the firm with ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告给予Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) "Sell"评级 [8][193] 报告的核心观点 行业前景 - Nordstrom面临结构性挑战,将持续失去市场份额给折扣零售商、品牌商和亚马逊 [14] - 预计Nordstrom的销售增长将在疫情后保持平缓,低于行业2%的增长 [35][36] 盈利能力 - 预计Nordstrom的EBIT利润率将在2026年降至约1.5%,远低于2019年的5.3% [15] - 需要增加促销力度以改善价格感知并吸引客流,这可能会对毛利率产生负面影响 [15] - 难以在预测的低销售增长率下实现SG&A费用的杠杆效应 [15] 估值 - 我们使用0.2倍的EV/销售比例给予12美元的目标价,较当前股价下跌46.1% [8][73][74] - 我们认为市场尚未完全消化Nordstrom较弱的盈利前景 [19] 根据报告目录分别总结 2Q24财报预览 - 2Q24销售有望温和增长,但存在一些负面信号 [29][30][31][32] - 毛利率和SG&A费用可能受到一定压力 [35][36][39][40] - 总体来看,我们预计2Q24业绩将与市场预期基本持平 [30] 估值分析 - 我们给予Nordstrom 0.2倍的目标EV/销售比,低于其历史估值区间 [73][74][75][76] - 我们的DCF分析也指向12美元的目标价 [77][78] 数据分析 - 社交媒体数据显示Nordstrom和Nordstrom Rack的关注度有所下降 [79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89][90][91][92] - 定价数据显示Nordstrom的促销力度有所收敛 [96][97][98][99][100][101][102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110] - 行业数据显示Nordstrom Rack的流量有所改善,但Nordstrom的流量仍然疲弱 [111][112][113][114][115][116][117]

报告行业投资评级 - EchoStar Corporation的评级为Neutral(中性) [4][41] 报告的核心观点 订阅用户表现优于预期 - EchoStar的付费电视用户流失率低于预期,无线用户增加(不包括ACP计划) [2] - 管理层表示正在与融资方进行建设性讨论,以在11月到期前筹集额外资金 [1] - 预计未来几年付费电视用户流失将放缓,无线用户损失将温和 [1] 无线网络建设进展良好 - 管理层表示当前网络建设和正在进行的建设将足以满足未来一年的大部分建设要求,但仍需要资金部署剩余部分 [3] - 预计2024年无线业务亏损将为13亿美元,2025年将降至9亿美元 [3] 长期估值上调 - 由于用户表现和流失率改善,公司2025年和2026年EBITDA预测分别上调至21.9亿美元和23.7亿美元 [1] - 目标价格上调至15美元,较之前14美元有所上升 [4] 按报告目录分别总结 订阅用户表现 - 付费电视收入同比下降约10%,调整后EBITDA下降8% [2] - 无线用户总体损失为3.79亿美元,略高于上一季度的3.51亿美元 [2] - 用户表现优于预期,主要得益于付费电视和无线用户流失率改善 [2] 无线网络建设 - 管理层表示当前网络建设和正在进行的建设将足以满足未来一年的大部分建设要求 [3] - 预计2024年无线业务亏损将为13亿美元,2025年将降至9亿美元 [3] - 2024年资本支出预计将下降约50%,但2025年将有所上升以满足建设要求 [3] 估值和目标价格 - 由于用户表现和流失率改善,公司2025年和2026年EBITDA预测分别上调至21.9亿美元和23.7亿美元 [1] - 目标价格上调至15美元,较之前14美元有所上升 [4]