报告行业投资评级 Hua Hong (1347.HK)维持买入评级 [22][24] 报告的核心观点 1) 尽管短期利润率面临挑战,但由于本地客户对公司专业技术在消费电子、计算、电动车、新能源和工业等广泛应用的需求上升,我们对Hua Hong的长期前景保持乐观 [1] 2) Hua Hong的12英寸新产能将于2025年1季度开始释放,有助于公司长期增长 [2][3] 3) 除功率离散器件外,主要下游需求正在改善,消费电子(射频、CIS)以及用于AI应用的PMIC产品需求强劲,MCU和智能卡IC也有温和复苏 [3] 行业研报目录总结 1. 行业投资评级 - 维持Hua Hong买入评级 [22][24] 2. 公司业务概况 - Hua Hong是一家专注于专业技术的半导体代工厂(8英寸和12英寸),产品涉及功率离散器件、模拟、NOR闪存、逻辑、射频、CIS、MCU等,主要终端市场包括消费电子、通信、计算、工业和汽车行业 [22] 3. 行业发展趋势 - 本地客户对公司专业技术在消费电子、计算、电动车、新能源和工业等广泛应用的需求上升 [1] - 除功率离散器件外,主要下游需求正在改善,消费电子(射频、CIS)以及用于AI应用的PMIC产品需求强劲,MCU和智能卡IC也有温和复苏 [3] 4. 公司经营情况 - Hua Hong的12英寸新产能将于2025年1季度开始释放,有助于公司长期增长 [2][3] - 公司目前产能利用率较高,管理层预计未来几个季度出货量有望上升 [2] 5. 财务表现 - 由于价格趋势疲软和折旧上升,公司短期利润率面临挑战 [1] - 管理层预计2023年第3季度收入和毛利率将环比有所改善 [7]

8 August 2024 | 10:41PM HKT _ Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) Lowering growth estimates but still favorable risk-reward; 2Q preview Buy 024.HK 1 HK$70.00 HK$43.85 59.6% Maintain Buy with revised TP of HK$70. Risk-reward continues to look favorable for Kuaishou after 30% drawdown from the May peak (vs. KWEB -16%, underperformed all other e-Com names: BABA/PDD/JD/VIPS), on multiples contraction following downward revision of annual GMV consensus despite consistent profit delivery. With this note, we revise our ...

8 August 2024 | 5:49PM CEST _ Big Oils Assessing Big Oils cash returns in a lower oil price environment; Screening for resilience Brent spot oil prices are down 5% over the past week, and the 2025 Brent futures curve has fallen below the $75 floor of this year's trading range and our commodity analysts' $75-90 range. While we still believe our $80/bbl oil price forecast for 2025 will withstand macro headwinds, given the consistent OPEC+ support of this oil price level over the past two years, we have attemp ...

报告行业投资评级 - 报告未提供行业整体的投资评级 [1] 报告的核心观点 - 尽管存在一些经济风险,但研究团队认为经济持续扩张的可能性更大 [8][9][11] - 劳动力市场指标仍然健康,失业率上升主要是由于劳动力供给的突然扩张,而不是需求的下降 [8] - 通胀数据有所改善,为美联储提供了降息的空间 [8] - 预计美联储将在9月、11月和12月各降息25个基点,之后降息步伐放缓 [8] - 动量因子表现强劲,主要得益于人工智能等主题股的表现 [13][14][19] 行业分类总结 科技、传媒和电信(TMT) - ARM ADRs被大和证券上调至优于大市评级,目标价130美元 [21] - BMBL因应用程序重新推出未能刺激增长而大跌,被下调至持有评级 [21] - FSLY被下调至中性评级 [21] - HUBS表现良好,被上调至与大市同步评级 [21] - INTC被下调至中性评级 [21] - LSCC被上调至优于大市评级 [21] - UDMY被新评为买入评级 [21] - WBD的大部分关键指标未达预期 [21] 医疗保健 - CRL被下调至中性评级 [22] - NVRO被上调至同行业表现评级 [22] - OM被下调至行业表现评级 [22] - PYXS被新评为买入评级 [22] - MCK下调了2025财年的收入增长指引 [22] 消费品 - KVYO被上调至增持评级 [23] - RCM被下调至中等权重评级 [23] - LRN被新评为买入评级 [23] - MODG Brands被下调至与大市同步评级 [24] - PRKS被下调至中性评级 [24] - VSTS被下调至中性评级 [24] - WWW被上调至增持评级 [25] - MNST的业绩和指引不佳 [25] - BROS因二季度表现和未来指引不佳而大跌 [25] - MODG下调指引但正在进行战略评估 [25] 工业、原材料和公用事业 - ASH被上调至中性评级 [26] - OLN被新评为中性评级 [26] - SNDR被下调至持有评级 [26] - TXT被下调至中等权重评级 [26] - WLK被新评为优于大市评级 [26] [1][8][9][11][13][14][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]

9 August 2024 | 2:53AM HKT SMIC (0981.HK): +13% ~ +15% QoQ for 3Q24 revenues, GM guidance higher than expected; 1Q24 beat on GM; Neutral SMIC guides 3Q24 revenues to grow 13%~15% QoQ, with mid-point 10% / 16% higher than our estimate (US$2.0bn) / Bloomberg consensus (US$1.9bn). 3Q GM is guided to 18%~20% (vs. 13.9% in 2Q24), in a faster than expected recovery trajectory. 2Q24 Rev of US$1.9bn (+9% QoQ) was slight higher than guidance range, and GM of 13.9% beat guidance and our expectation, which we attribut ...

8 August 2024 | 5:00PM BST _ GS SUSTAIN: Circular Economy Our Circular Economy Ecosystem Expands in 2024 A broader increase in investment towards efficiency solutions is likely to provide tailwinds for Circular Economy adoption and enablement to help decouple growth from resource consumption, while ensuring security of resource supply in light of underinvestment in materials supply, higher commodity prices and elevated global tensions. However, while companies are increasingly adopting and enabling circular ...

7 August 2024 | 3:15AM EDT _ Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F4Q24 review: Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook SMCI's F4Q24 EPS missed ($6.25 v. $7.62-$8.42 guidance) as in-line revenue of $5.3 bn (v. $5.1-$5.5 bn guidance) was more than offset by a gross margin miss at 11.3% (v. consensus 14.2%). Weaker than expected gross margins of 11.3% were impacted by SMCI's focus on strategic new design wins with competitive pricing to win market share, customer mix (e.g., emerging hyperscalers) an ...

What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness 7 August 2024 | 4:39PM EDT This week: n US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown n Markets: bad news is bad news n Europe and China: a weaker economic picture, too Transcript US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown We raised our 12m US recession odds by 10pp to 25% and now expect a string of consecutive 25bp Fed rate cuts in September, November, and December ...

报告行业投资评级 报告未提供行业投资评级。 报告的核心观点 1) 2024年7月中国出口增长放缓至7.0%同比,但进口增长加快至7.2%同比,超出预期 [2][3][4] 2) 7月中国对主要贸易伙伴的出口值环比下降,但进口值环比上升 [8] 3) 7月中国除科技相关产品外,主要产品出口值环比均有下降,而汽车和半导体进口值环比大幅上升 [9][10] 4) 2024年7月中国贸易顺差下降至845亿美元,6月为990亿美元 [5] 分类总结 出口情况 1) 2024年7月中国出口增长放缓至7.0%同比,6月为8.6%同比 [3] 2) 出口增长放缓主要受新兴市场需求疲软拖累 [2] 3) 对主要贸易伙伴的出口增长仍然较为强劲,其中对美国出口增长8.1%同比,对欧盟出口增长8.0%同比 [8] 4) 除科技相关产品外,其他主要产品出口值环比均有下降,如家具出口下降5.5%同比,金属和服装鞋箱包出口增速也有所放缓 [9] 进口情况 1) 2024年7月中国进口增长加快至7.2%同比,6月为-2.3%同比 [4] 2) 7月进口增长强劲可能部分由于今年7月工作日数较去年多所致 [2] 3) 汽车和半导体进口值环比大幅上升,分别增长17.3%同比和14.9%同比 [10] 4) 大宗商品进口值环比除金属矿石和制品外均有下降,以铁矿石、成品油和天然气为代表的进口数量环比有所回升 [10]

8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...