maybefalseIntroduction In my previous report on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), I rated the Chinese tech conglomerate a "Strong Buy" in light of its Q4 FY2024 report, citing fundamental business improvements at Alibaba (underneath the surface), management's commitment to delivering shareholder value via buybacks & dividends, and asymmetric risk/reward for long-term investors due to BABA's depressed valuation - While BABA stock has continued to tread water around multi-year lows for severa ...

公司投资评级 - 报告维持对阿里巴巴的“买入”评级 [7] 报告的核心观点 - 阿里巴巴通过战略聚焦和组织架构升级，致力于提升用户体验和增强核心业务，如淘天、AIDC和云计算，以实现二次成长 [7] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 组织架构调整与战略聚焦 - 阿里巴巴确立了“用户为先，AI驱动”的战略，并进行了组织架构的再升级，聚焦于淘天、AIDC和云计算三大核心业务 [29][30][32] 淘天集团的核心地位与用户体验升级 - 淘天集团作为阿里巴巴的核心资产，通过全面升级用户体验，回归用户价值，加大用户体验投入，促进用户回流和GMV增长 [7][77][78] 出海业务的发展 - 阿里巴巴加速出海业务，通过全托管和半托管模式，以及与菜鸟物流的协同，打造第二增长曲线 [7][118][132] 云智能集团的竞争力 - 阿里云作为世界一流的云服务厂商，通过加强核心产品供应和AI投资，巩固其全球领先地位 [7][114] 盈利预测与估值 - 报告维持对阿里巴巴的盈利预测，预计未来几年营收和净利润将实现稳定增长，并维持“买入”评级 [7][8]

公司股票回购 - 阿里巴巴在2025财年第一季度（日历第二季度）以$58亿回购了7700万份ADR，这相当于公司之前总股数的3.16% [2] - 公司的大规模股票回购计划表明，在财报发布期间，公司自身可能会提供一定的股价支持 [3] 财报预期 - 分析师预计阿里巴巴的营收为$346.2亿，调整后EPS为$2.09，报告EPS为$1.71 [3] - 如果财报完全符合预期，营收增长率为7.3%，调整后EPS增长率为26%，GAAP EPS增长率为-6.5% [3] 潜在的财报表现 - 阿里巴巴可能轻松超越即将发布的季度财报中的预期 [4] - 公司营收增长可能超过预期，主要因为中国在线零售销售增长在第一季度大部分时间保持在10%左右，且人民币对美元的汇率影响不大 [4] - 调整后EPS可能表现强劲，尽管预测较为复杂，但基于成本、运营费用、利息支出和税率的合理假设，预计EPS为$2.24，同比增长35% [5] 估值分析 - 根据TTM财务数据和最近的收盘价，阿里巴巴的估值倍数较低，包括9倍调整后EPS，18倍GAAP EPS，1.51倍销售额，1.39倍账面价值，7.31倍运营现金流 [6] - 使用预测数据，估值倍数进一步降低，预测的EPS为$5.51，营收每股为$55.9，对应的市盈率（P/E）为14.5，价格/销售额比为1.43，价格/账面价值比为1.23 [6] 结论 - 阿里巴巴的股票回购计划有可能显著提升第一季度的财报表现，即使未达到预测的高于市场共识的数字，回购本身也会增加EPS [7] - 股票回购在低估值倍数下进行，表明增加的股东价值超过了所花费的资金 [7]

Dr. Michael Burry, a legendary investor played by Christian Bale in “The Big Short,” is an investment legend. He’s the type of independent-thinking investor who’s more than willing to place massive contrarian bets for a shot at even outsized rewards.Additionally, he seems to have a knack for spotting macro trends from miles away, even as others are blind to them. Taking massive contrarian positions (think the Big Short) takes courage. But more importantly, it takes patience and confidence in one’s abilities ...

The Federal Reserve kept short-term interest rates steady, indicating that inflation is approaching the 2% target. Identifying top stocks to buy after July 2024 inflation data is crucial. Inflation trends and interest rates significantly influence investment decisions. As inflation stabilizes, certain companies demonstrate resilience and growth potential. With inflation data continuing to set the tone in the markets, some sectors are better positioned than others to take advantage of easing inflationary pre ...

文章核心观点 - 阿里巴巴国际数字商务集团计划在9月推出一款基于人工智能(AI)的"对话式采购引擎" [1][2][3] - 这款新工具将通过更快捷、更简单的方式搜索潜在的商业合作伙伴和产品,为中小企业(SMBs)提供全球B2B采购流程的便利 [2][3][4] - 这款采购引擎将利用AI和数据来促进商业交易 [5][6] - 阿里巴巴正在利用生成式AI为其海外电商业务提供翻译、协商退款等支持,并已有约50万卖家使用了这些AI工具 [7][8] 公司动态 - 阿里巴巴在2022年底组建了一支100人的工程师团队,致力于为其海外电商业务开发生成式AI应用 [8] - 阿里巴巴在6月推出了一款名为"阿里巴巴担保"的新B2B市场解决方案,提供一个集中的平台供企业搜索产品、比较价格和下单 [9][10]

Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA) usually dominate the headlines in the e-commerce space, which is no surprise considering their combined market cap surpasses $2 billion. However, there are other stocks in the sector with intriguing technical setups that are worth monitoring.Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) stock is down 9.5% at $58.97 at last check today, following the company's mixed second-quarter report. Though earnings beat estimates on consistent demand for personalized gifts, revenue came in below expectati ...

PARIS, FRANCE - JULY 17: Logo of Alibaba, a Chinese multinational technology company specializing ... [+] in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology, and a Worldwide Olympic Partner, on July 17, 2024, in Paris France. (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images)NurPhoto via Getty ImagesChinese e-commerce and cloud behemoth Alibaba stock stock has been a weak performer this year, rising by just about 1% since early January. In comparison, its U.S.-based peer Amazon has gained 21% over the same perio ...

文章核心观点 - JD.com和Alibaba是中国两大电商巨头,曾被视为中国经济增长的蓝筹股,但股价均下跌超过70%,面临宏观、竞争和监管等诸多挑战 [3] - 两家公司在电商业务、物流、海外市场等方面存在相似和差异 [4][5][6][7] - 两家公司增速均有所放缓,但Alibaba的增速下滑更为严重,主要受到反垄断打击的影响 [9][10] - 相比之下,拼多多的增速更为迅猛,主要得益于其农产品电商和跨境电商业务的快速扩张 [11] - 两家公司在盈利能力方面也存在差异,Alibaba的利润率更高,但近年来双方都在通过成本控制来提升利润 [12][13] 行业分析 - 中国电商行业竞争激烈,除JD和Alibaba外,拼多多也成为重要玩家,正快速抢占市场份额 [8][11] - 行业面临宏观经济下行、监管收紧等诸多挑战,给两家公司的业绩增长带来压力 [9][10] - 地缘政治局势恶化也给两家公司的估值带来压力,未来能否获得较高估值还需观察中美关系走向 [14] 公司分析 - JD主要依赖自营商城,而Alibaba的收入主要来自第三方市场,两家在盈利模式上存在差异 [12] - 近年来两家公司都在通过成本控制来提升利润,但Alibaba的利润率仍更高 [13] - 从增长潜力来看,Alibaba凭借更广泛的业务布局和更强的海外扩张能力,可能更具投资价值 [15]

China's e-commerce giant just can't shake off the pessimistic rhetoric. But nothing lasts forever.It's been a tough past few years for Alibaba Group Holding (BABA 2.73%), and, by extension, for shareholders. The stock's down 76% from its late 2020 peak, unable to hold into the gains driven during and because of the COVID-19 pandemic. It's still dwindling, too, now back within sight of the multi-year low made in late 2022. Investors just see too many lingering red flags.As veteran investors know, though, you ...