报告公司投资评级 - 阿里巴巴(BABA US)的目标价为111美元/107港元,对应2024/25年市盈率9/7.6倍,维持买入评级 [6][10] 报告的核心观点 业绩预览 - 预计2025财年1季度总收入2510亿元,同比增7%,调整后EBITA 439亿元,同比下降3% [3] - 预计阿里电商GMV同比增6%,与大盘表现一致,CMR与GMV增速差呈收窄趋势 [4] - 淘天收入预计同比增1%,直营电商收入预期较预期低约5% [5] - 国际商业预计将继续维持收入高增长预期,同比增39% [5] - 云业务恢复中高个位数同比增速,得益于公有云及AI相关收入拉动 [5] - 本地生活预计收入同比增14%,表现与行业一致 [5] - 菜鸟收入同比增22%,得益于跨境物流履约服务 [5] - 上调数字娱乐收入9%,受优酷表现优异拉动 [5] 估值分析 - 预计2025财年1季度公司整体EBITA增速或仍承压,主要考虑淘天继续投入商品竞争力和用户体验带来的GMV恢复效果以及国际商业海外的积极布局 [6] - 按SOTP,维持111美元/107港元(9988 HK)目标价,公司现价对应2024/25历年市盈率9/7.6倍 [6] 分部业绩总结 淘天集团 - 客户营销管理、直营、批发业务情况 [18][19][20] 阿里国际数字商业集团 - 零售、批发业务情况 [18][19][20] 本地生活集团 - 业务情况 [18][19][20] 菜鸟集团 - 业务情况 [18][19][20] 云智能集团 - 业务情况 [18][19][20] 大文娱集团 - 业务情况,包括优酷 [18][19][20] 其他业务 - 业务情况 [18][19][20] 财务数据 - 总收入、Non-GAAP EBITA、Non-GAAP利润率等财务指标预测 [23][24][25][26]

文章核心观点 - 中国经济在疫情后复苏艰难,但中国仍是全球第二大经济体,占全球出口15% [1] - 投资者对中国持极度悲观情绪,但这可能是一个逆向信号,表明现在是买入中国股票的好时机 [2] - 中国股票估值较低,MSCI中国指数的市盈率为9.4倍,远低于标普500的21倍,存在较大上涨空间 [3] 行业总结 电子商务行业 - 阿里巴巴仍是中国最大的电商零售商,其电商业务保持健康增长,同比增长4% [5][6] - 阿里巴巴的国际数字商务业务增长45%,受益于AliExpress和Trendyol在海湾地区的扩张 [6] - 阿里巴巴的云智能业务增长3%,但人工智能相关收入增速加快,呈现三位数增长 [7][8] 餐饮行业 - 中国餐饮龙头百胜中国拥有15,022家门店,覆盖2,000多个城市,是中国最大的餐饮连锁企业 [10] - 百胜中国的估值较历史平均水平大幅下降,目前仅为15倍预期非公认会计准则收益 [11] - 百胜中国在中国市场仍有多年增长空间,KFC在1,200个中国城市尚未开设门店 [12][13] 互联网搜索行业 - 百度是中国搜索引擎市场的领导者,占有53.3%的市场份额,广告业务是主要收入来源 [15] - 百度的云服务业务2023年收入增长6%至26亿美元,人工智能业务也是新的增长引擎 [16][17] - 百度的自动驾驶出行服务Apollo Go在2023年第一季度提供了约82.6万次行程,同比增长25% [18]

文章核心观点 - 阿里巴巴股价今年表现疲弱,仅上涨约1%,而同期亚马逊股价上涨27% [2] - 阿里巴巴受到多重因素影响,包括中国经济放缓、新电商玩家竞争加剧 [2][3] - 但阿里巴巴估值合理,且在人工智能等领域有增长潜力 [6] 中国经济和消费状况 - 中国经济增长放缓,第二季度GDP同比增长4.7%,低于第一季度的5.3% [3] - 中国消费支出和零售销售疲软,零售销售创18个月新低,受通胀和失业率高企影响 [3] - 阿里巴巴面临来自拼多多等新电商玩家的竞争压力,电商业务增速放缓 [3] - 阿里云业务增长也有所放缓,受疫情后远程办公、教育等需求下降影响 [3] 阿里巴巴股价表现 - 阿里巴巴股价从2021年初的235美元下跌65%至目前约80美元,而同期标普500指数上涨约50% [4] - 阿里巴巴股价在过去3年内每年都低于标普500指数 [4] - 相比之下,Trefis高质量投资组合在同期内每年都跑赢标普500指数 [5] 阿里巴巴的估值和发展前景 - 阿里巴巴的监管风险有所缓解,正在调整电商策略以应对竞争 [6] - 阿里巴巴当前估值较低,仅9.5倍预期收益,远低于亚马逊的42倍 [6] - 阿里巴巴正加大股票回购力度,同时人工智能业务有望为公司带来增长 [6] - 分析师预计阿里巴巴股价有37%的上涨空间 [6]

In the latest trading session, Alibaba (BABA) closed at $78.38, marking a +0.47% move from the previous day. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.64%. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 1.85%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.2%.Heading into today, shares of the online retailer had gained 4.64% over the past month, outpacing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 2.58% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.82% in that time.Investors will be eagerly watching for th ...

Robert Way Investment Thesis I am bullish on BABA given its strategic market position, which I believe will give it upward trajectory traction. In January 2024, I published a bullish thesis on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) where I reiterated my buy recommendation. In that analysis, I asserted that what had been a bearish trend was reversing, and a bullish momentum was building. Since that coverage, the stock has gained 7.63%, with a total return of 9.04%. My bullish thesis was based on the c ...

Cloud computing is key to modern technologies. Enterprises across industry verticals are pursuing digital transformation strategies in order to facilitate cost synergies. A core part of digital transformation is cloud migration. That is, instead of buying and maintaining servers in-house, businesses have begun to purchase cloud-based products that rely on the power of remote servers elsewhere. Reduced capital expenditures are just one upside to the adoption of cloud computing. Also, via the cloud, enterpris ...

文章核心观点 - 这些公司都处于有利位置,可以回报股东 [1] - 2024年牛市持续,科技主导的纳斯达克综合指数同比上涨24% [2] - 投资者可以寻找被低估的股票,这些公司可能会加入反弹行列 [2] 卡尼瓦尔 - 卡尼瓦尔是世界最大的邮轮公司,旗下拥有多个品牌 [3][4] - 股价从疫情前高点下跌75%,但公司正在改善经营效率,提升利润 [5][6][7] - 上季度营业利润明显增加,未来几年预计盈利将大幅增长,股价有吸引力 [8] 特斯拉 - 特斯拉已成为汽车行业最知名的品牌之一,销售额从2012年的4亿美元增长到去年的960亿美元 [9] - 尽管估值较高,但随着产能扩张和新车型推出,特斯拉仍有较大增长空间 [10][11][12] 阿里巴巴 - 阿里巴巴是中国最大的在线零售和云服务提供商,也在海外市场拓展电商业务 [14][15] - 受中国经济放缓和竞争加剧影响,销售增长放缓,但2024年趋势有所好转 [16][17] - 阿里巴巴云业务增长乏力,但正在采取措施提升竞争力 [18][19] - 目前股价处于低位,估值仅为9倍,具有较大上涨潜力 [20]

Chinese consumer stocks took a hit on lackluster Q2 growth.Shares of Chinese tech stocks Alibaba (BABA -2.06%), Baidu (BIDU -5.98%), and JD.com (JD -5.33%) fell on Monday, down 2%, 5.9%, and 5.3%, respectively, in Monday's trading session.The downdraft in China-oriented consumer tech names appeared entirely to do with the disappointing economic data that came out of China today."Only" 4.7% growthIn the second quarter, China reported just 4.7% economic growth, well below the 5.3% last quarter and below the 5 ...

Alibaba Group TodayBABAAlibaba Group$78.23 -1.42 (-1.78%) 52-Week Range$66.63▼$102.50Dividend Yield1.25%P/E Ratio18.24Price Target$108.79Add to WatchlistAs the dominant eCommerce giant, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. NYSE: BABA is often considered the Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN of China. By sales, it's the third largest eCommerce giant in the world. With shares trading up just 3.6% year-to-date (YTD), it is also considerably underperforming the Nasdaq-100 index, up 20.8% YTD. With shares trading down nearly 7 ...

Billionaires know the opportunity in AI goes well beyond Nvidia.The surge in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks has not escaped the attention of billionaires. As opportunities emerge, investing disclosure requirements show they have deployed significant amounts of capital into AI stocks like Nvidia.This is important because some investors follow the lead of these top-tier investors and mimic their transactions hoping for similar results. While these billionaires buy stocks for many reasons that have little ...