Kateryna Skorupska/iStock via Getty ImagesBrief article for this weekend. I want to cover some earnings projections for the mortgage REITs and BDCs. We have some preliminary results from a few companies already. Main Street Capital We have Main Street Capital (MAIN) establishing a preliminary figure in the $29.77 to $29.83 range. Midpoint is $29.80. That's quite similar to our estimate of $29.90. MAIN also previewed net investment income in the $1.00 to $1.02 range. That comes in very slightly under our ...

Matteo Colombo Real Estate Weekly Outlook U.S. equity markets posted their worst week since April, while benchmark interest rates rebounded from four-month lows as a wild week of political developments sparked a surge in volatility and added fuel to the "value rotation" dynamic as the path solidified for Fed rate cuts later this quarter. Markets reflected a higher likelihood of a conservative victory after former President Trump survived an assassination attempt last weekend, while traders reacted to ec ...

Firn/iStock via Getty Images Today we're going to examine the difference in performance for 2 very high yielding REITs. These REITs both deliver huge dividends, but one is vastly more popular with investors. I want to help investors understand how interchangeable these REITs can be. AGNC Investment (AGNC) and Dynex Capital (DX) are both agency mortgage REITs. They have similar assets and highly correlated performance. Previously, I referenced that DX slightly outperformed AGNC from January 3rd, 2017 through ...

文章核心观点 - 公司Ready Capital的股票表现一直较弱,主要是由于公司资产价值下降和部分贷款不良导致 [3][4][5] - 公司通过回购股票提高了每股账面价值和每股收益,这是一个积极的举措 [7] - 公司的股息收益率虽然很高,但仍有一定的投资价值 [8] - 同行业公司AGNC和Dynex Capital的估值差异较大,存在套利机会 [9][11][13] 行业概况 - 机构投资者对机构抵押贷款REIT(agency mortgage REIT)的态度存在分歧,有的喜欢有的不喜欢 [9] - 机构抵押贷款REIT的估值普遍较高,存在泡沫风险 [9][10] - 同行业公司Dynex Capital和Orchid Island Capital的表现差异较大,主要源于管理能力和人才的差异 [16] 公司分析 - Ready Capital的资产质量下降导致业绩受到拖累,但公司已经对最差资产进行了减值 [4][5][6] - Ready Capital的股息收益率较高,但仍有一定投资价值 [8] - AGNC的股价估值过高,存在泡沫风险,投资者可考虑做空AGNC并买入Dynex Capital [23] - Orchid Island Capital的表现较差,投资者不应仅仅因为其股息收益率较高而选择投资 [24]

12 dogs for the 12% dividend yield Eriklam/iStock via Getty Images If you clicked the title, you’re probably into high-dividend stocks. Alternatively, you may just enjoy my snarking writing. Either way, thank you for joining me. If you didn’t click the title, I have no idea how you got here. The first thing I want to talk about today is PMT-A and PMT-B. These two preferred shares from PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) have been the center of controversy for nearly 10 months. I’m sharing an article we wrote for ...

Canine's looking for 9% or higher Chris Amaral/DigitalVision via Getty Images How are you feeling about interest rates lately? I’m a bit bothered by the move higher. We’ve seen rates moving higher, but we’ve also seen share prices rally on some of our income investments. I want to discuss a new one we added to coverage recently. Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) has a baby bond (CIMN). We wrote our first report on it on May 30th, 2024. I’m going to include part of that report below, along with a brief up ...

krblokhin/iStock via Getty Images Co-authored by Treading Softly In 2001, the Oakland Athletics baseball team was devastated by their loss to the New York Yankees. In 2002, their general manager, Billy Beane, had to desperately come up with a new team to be able to replace many stars who were leaving. The problem was that the Oakland A's had a very small budget compared to many large Major League Baseball teams. What Billy Beane ended up doing became the focus of a book (Moneyball: The Art Of Winning An Unf ...

Dragon Claws Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE:ACRE) suffered a big decline in its distributable earnings in the first quarter as the trust works through some non- accrual issues relating to its office and multi-family loan portfolio. The trust was forced to increase its provision for credit losses by more than $22 million in the first quarter which was widely expected after Ares Commercial Real Estate slashed its dividend pay-out by 24% in 1Q24. The stock, however, did not react much to these d ...

Megapixel8 A year ago, I wrote a cautious article on Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE:ACRE), warning that commercial real estate markets were forecasted to weaken and the outlook for ACRE was negative. Since my article, ACRE's stock performance has continued to lag markets, falling 7.9% compared to a 27% return in the S&P 500 (Figure 1). Figure 1 - ACRE has lagged markets (Seeking Alpha) With a year gone by, let us review the concerns I had concerning ACRE to see if they have been resolved, and also revisi ...

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 公司报告了GAAP净亏损1,230万美元,或每股普通股亏损0.23美元 [13] - 可分配收益亏损3,350万美元,或每股普通股亏损0.62美元,主要由于退出3笔贷款而产生4,570万美元的已实现损失 [13] - 剔除已实现损失,可分配收益为1,220万美元,或每股普通股0.22美元 [13] - 总CECL准备金从2023年12月31日的1.63亿美元下降至1.41亿美元,下降2,200万美元 [13] - CECL准备金占贷款本金余额的6.9%,较上一季度的7.6%有所下降 [13] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - 公司贷款组合总本金余额为20亿美元,涵盖44笔贷款 [10] - 36笔贷款本金余额15亿美元,占75%,评级为3级或更好 [10] - 这些优质贷款的借款人持续投入资本,过去12个月投入超过1.3亿美元 [10] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 公司将一笔3,300万美元的5级评级贷款(backed by加州一处办公楼)在第二季度作为不良资产处置 [11] - 一笔6,900万美元的北卡办公楼贷款在季度末违约,公司已开始接管该物业 [11] 公司战略和发展方向及行业竞争 - 公司谨慎乐观地看待商业地产市场的温和复苏,CMBS资本市场的利差收窄将有利于实现近期目标 [17] - 公司专注于解决表现不佳的贷款,并进一步提高流动性,以最大化结果,并将重点从资产管理转向投资 [17] - 公司计划在2024年解决大部分4级和5级风险贷款,这将使其可分配收益更高 [17] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 管理层认为,利率稳定和CMBS市场的流动性改善,将支持公司在短期内实现目标 [17] - 公司将继续专注于解决4级和5级风险贷款,这将为公司提供灵活性,重新开始进行投资 [20][21] - 公司认为,随着更多贷款得到解决,其季度收益轨迹在今年可能会不太平稳,包括第二季度 [17] 问答环节重要的提问和回答 问题1 **Doug Harter提问** 公司是否会将解决贷款所得用于偿还债务,还是会转向投资? [20] **Bryan Donohoe回答** 公司的策略与之前类似,即通过多种方式解决问题贷款,以获得更多流动性。一旦看到合适的投资机会,公司将转向进攻性投资。公司将继续解决4级和5级风险贷款,这将为公司提供灵活性,重新开始进行投资。 [21] 问题2 **Jason Sabshon提问** 公司如何看待北卡办公楼贷款的违约情况? [28] **Bryan Donohoe回答** 公司曾试图与借款人合作,但双方无法达成重组贷款的合理方案。该资产目前有正现金流,在一个吸引企业进驻的市场,公司认为通过专业的所有权团队可以增加价值。公司将在未来60-90天内制定更具体的解决计划。 [29] 问题3 **Stephen Laws提问** 公司对不良贷款的处置目标如何? [34] **Bryan Donohoe回答** 公司将继续努力在今年内解决大部分4级和5级风险贷款,这将有助于提高可分配收益。具体时间线难以确定,但以年末为目标是合理的。公司将在管理资产价值回收的同时,兼顾资产处置的及时性。 [35][36]