ARTICLE 6 APPROACH PAPER SERIES plic Disclosure Auth Disclosure Authoriz Considerations for CDM Methodology Concepts to Article 6.2 Mechanism WORLD BANK GROUP © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.orldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the vi ...

报告行业投资评级 报告没有提供行业投资评级。 报告的核心观点 1. 报告提出了一个创新的多指标优先级框架,用于协助柬埔寨农村道路投资的优先排序,考虑了道路在减贫、人类发展和物流供应方面的重要性,以及道路在气候变化下的脆弱性 [24][25][45] 2. 该框架基于两个地理空间模型:洪水中断模型和物流供应链模型,共同识别最关键和最脆弱的道路路段,以便优先进行干预 [25][66] 3. 洪水中断模型模拟50年一遇洪水情况下不同农村道路的影响,识别导致农村社区无法获得教育、医疗、就业等服务的关键道路 [89][90][91] 4. 物流供应链模型模拟了柬埔寨节点和链路的中断,并量化了每条物流走廊及其农村支线道路的相对重要性 [100][101][106][107] 5. 该框架使柬埔寨农村发展部能够将有限资源投入到最关键的农村道路上 [25][45] 报告内容总结 柬埔寨农村道路现状及气候变化挑战 1. 柬埔寨农村道路总长度超过47,000公里,占全国道路网的75%,在为农村人口提供服务和机会方面发挥着关键作用 [32][33] 2. 但约90%的农村道路仍未铺砌和排水,在雨季期间农村可达性仍然是一大挑战 [33] 3. 气候变化加剧了洪水风险,造成农村道路直接损坏和间接经济损失,需要提高农村道路的气候适应能力 [37][38][39] 优先级框架 1. 该框架采用两步法:首先基于全国性多标准分析确定优先干预的乡镇,然后在这些乡镇内选择具体道路进行干预 [147][148] 2. 乡镇层面的优先级评估包括三个发展视角:包容性、人类发展和物流供应,共6个指标 [47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54] 3. 每个指标都被量化为0-100的道路关键性得分,并可根据决策者偏好调整权重 [58][59][60][64] 4. 最终得分越高,该乡镇的农村道路越应该优先改善 [64] 支撑地理空间模型 1. 两个模型都基于村庄作为基本地理单元,利用多源数据包括人口、贫困、农业生产等 [67][68] 2. 韧性可达性模型评估农村道路在洪水情况下对学校、医院、就业岗位和农产品市场的可达性影响 [70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88] 3. 物流供应链模型模拟洪水导致的供应链中断,量化了每条道路对价格上涨和产品短缺的影响 [100][101][102][103][104][105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117][118] 应用结果 1. 在没有洪水的基线情况下,约70%的柬埔寨农村人口在60分钟内可以到达医院和高中,67%的农产品在60分钟内可以运到市场 [120][121][122][123][124][125][126][127][128][129] 2. 50年一遇洪水会严重影响可达性,约15%的人口无法在60分钟内到达医院,11%无法到达高中和农产品市场 [132][133][134][135][136] 3. 改善桥梁、排水系统和路面可以显著提高抗洪能力,特别是在受灾最严重的几个省份 [137][138][139][140][141][142][143][144][145] 4. 基于多指标评估,确定了15个应优先改善农村道路的乡镇,主要分布在东北部、中部和西部贫困偏远地区 [147][148][149][150][151][154][155][157][158][159][160][161][162]

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