港股核电股再度走强，中核国际(02302.HK)涨超22%，中广核矿业(01164.HK)、中广核电力(01816.HK) 涨超3%，中广核新能源(01811.HK)涨超1.5%。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Group 1 - The company, China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), is the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia, backed by CGN Group, which provides a stable platform for overseas uranium resource development and financing [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company holds a total of approximately 34,000 tons of uranium resources from four uranium mines in Kazakhstan, utilizing in-situ leaching methods with lower mining costs than the global average [1] - The company has a stable financial structure, maintaining a debt-to-asset ratio below 50% over the past two years, and is expected to benefit from the injection of high-quality assets from CGN Group in the future [1][2] Group 2 - The company has established a robust profit model through a dual approach of self-production and international trade, with a pricing mechanism linked to spot prices, allowing for profit expansion as uranium prices rise [2] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of HKD 8.624 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 342 million, despite some impacts from tax rate adjustments [2] - The new sales agreements are expected to elevate profit margins, with a pricing mechanism that increasingly reflects market conditions [2] Group 3 - The global nuclear power revival is accelerating, with the World Nuclear Association (WNA) predicting an average annual compound growth of over 4% in natural uranium demand from 2024 to 2040 [3] - The supply-demand gap for uranium is expected to widen in the medium to long term due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments since 2015, leading to a tightening supply trend [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated high uranium prices, supported by its low-cost structure and abundant resources [3] Group 4 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of HKD 573 million, HKD 942 million, and HKD 1.183 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting significant year-on-year growth [3] - The company’s projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average PE of 29X for comparable companies in the US [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of uranium has been recovering due to increased global nuclear energy policies, with CGN Mining (01164.HK) stock rising significantly, nearly 95% from its low of HKD 1.19 on April 9 to HKD 2.32 on July 11 [1] - In June, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) revised its agreement with Canaccord Genuity to raise approximately USD 200 million for uranium procurement, allowing for the purchase of 1,012 tons of uranium, which is double the previously stated amount [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The U.S. nuclear policy has shifted positively, with President Trump signing four executive orders to accelerate reactor testing and enhance uranium mining and enrichment capabilities [2] - Other countries, including Germany, Belgium, and Japan, have also expressed positive statements regarding nuclear energy development, contributing to an expected increase in global nuclear power demand and tightening uranium supply [2] Group 3: Company Performance - CGN Mining's average unit sales cost for natural uranium is between USD 68-74 per pound U3O8, while the average sales price is between USD 58-61 per pound U3O8, indicating a potential negative impact on gross profit due to accounting methods [3] - The new sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium has adjusted the base price from USD 61.78 to USD 94.22 per pound U3O8, with a higher proportion of spot prices, enhancing pricing flexibility [2][3] - Analysts believe that CGN Mining will benefit from rising uranium prices and the adjusted sales pricing mechanism, leading to a positive impact on performance and valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in uranium resources, benefiting from the global nuclear power recovery and a new long-term pricing mechanism that enhances performance expectations [5]. - Backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, the company has a leading global resource layout and long-term growth potential, being the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia [5][10]. - The company has a dual-driven model of "self-produced + international trade," which stabilizes growth and profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 2.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 17,177.54 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 86.24 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 3.42 billion [6][21]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 5.73 billion, HKD 9.42 billion, and HKD 11.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 67.5%, 64.4%, and 25.6% respectively [8][10]. Business Model - The business model consists of self-produced trade and international trade, with the international trade segment providing stable profit through price differences [19]. - The company holds a 49% equity stake in several uranium mines in Kazakhstan, ensuring a stable supply and cost advantage [5][41]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing mechanism for 2026-2028 includes a base price (BP) and spot price (SP) structure, with BP set to increase annually, enhancing profit margins [6][49]. Market Outlook - The global nuclear power revival is expected to drive uranium demand, with an average annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply of uranium due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments [7]. Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average of 29X, indicating potential undervaluation [10].

Group 1 - Company is a subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Group, the largest nuclear power group in China and the third largest globally, focusing on uranium resource development and financing [1] - Company aims to become a leading international supplier of natural uranium by capitalizing on the global nuclear power recovery and increasing demand for natural uranium [1] - In 2024, the company expects to have an equity resource of 34,000 tons of uranium (tU) and an equity production of 1,324 tU, with projected revenue of HKD 8.62 billion and net profit of HKD 340 million [1] Group 2 - Company signed a sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium for the years 2026 to 2028, committing to an annual purchase of no less than 1,200 tons of natural uranium [2] - The pricing mechanism for the agreement includes a fixed price component set at USD 94.22 per pound, with annual sales caps of HKD 3.94 billion, HKD 4.40 billion, and HKD 4.56 billion for the respective years [2] Group 3 - China's nuclear power investment is expected to remain robust, with plans to approve the construction of at least 10 new reactors annually starting from 2022, leading to increased uranium demand [3] - As of the end of 2024, China is projected to have 102 operational and approved reactors, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's largest nuclear power market [3] - The company forecasts revenue growth from HKD 9.08 billion in 2025 to HKD 10.94 billion in 2027, with net profit expected to rise significantly during the same period [3]

[Table_Invest]增持 [Table_Info1] 中广核矿业(01164.HK) 建筑材料 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-07-10 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 稀缺海外铀资源平台，受益铀价上行 中广核集团海外铀资源平台。公司是中国第一、全球第三大的核电集 团中广核集团下属上市子公司之一，亦是中广核集团旗下海外铀资源 开发的投、融资的唯一平台。中广核矿业是香港主板上市产量最大的 铀业集团，同时也是东亚目前唯一的纯铀业上市公司，主要业务为核 能企业使用的天然铀资源的开发与贸易。公司将抓住全球核电复苏和 天然铀需求持续增长的机遇，获取强成本竞争力的铀资源项目，致力 于成为国际一流的天然铀供应商。2024 年，公司权益资源量 3.4 万 tU， 权益产量 1324tU，全年实现营收 86.2 亿港元，净利润 3.4 亿港元。 已签订 2026~2028 关联交易合同，预期受益铀价上行。公司 6 月 3 日 公告，与中广核铀业签订销售框架协议，期限覆盖 2026 年~2028 年； 据框架协议，中广核铀业每年采购不低于 1200t 天然铀，每磅定价机 制为 ...

Group 1 - The energy transition is driving a demand inflection point, with limited new uranium supply due to low capital expenditure over the past decade, leading to a tight balance in natural uranium supply and demand [1] - Nuclear power plays a crucial role in energy transition and carbon neutrality, providing stable clean energy and supporting the recovery of the nuclear industry, with a new wave of nuclear power construction expected globally [1] - Countries like China, the US, France, and Japan are advancing nuclear power projects, which will likely increase uranium demand, while the long-term low uranium prices and limited new mining supply create a favorable environment for price increases [2] Group 2 - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) reported a production of 659.1 tons of natural uranium in Q1 2025, with a completion rate of 110.7%, and holds 1,262 tons of natural uranium with an average cost of $71.37 per pound [3] - CGN's international sales company expects a significant negative impact on gross profit due to fluctuations in market prices, with average sales costs between $68-$74 per pound and average sales prices between $58-$61 per pound for the first half of 2025 [3] - China Nuclear International, the overseas uranium resource platform of China National Nuclear Corporation, reported a significant increase in uranium trade, with sales of approximately 577,000 pounds and total revenue of HKD 1.841 billion, a year-on-year increase of 217% [3]

中广核矿业 20250703 天然铀行业的供需情况如何？ 天然铀行业的供需情况主要受到核电需求端的高速增长和供给侧的刚性影响。 核电站通过铀裂变产生能量，天然铀经过开采、转化、浓缩等过程，被制成核 燃料组件。目前全球核电已经进入增长通道，受到四方面驱动：一是相较传统 化石能源，核电具备清洁、低耗、高效特点，在全球降碳背景下发展势头强劲。 2023 年全球有 22 个国家达成三倍核能宣言，预计到 2050 年全球核能装机容 量达到目前三倍，即复合增速为 4.2%。二是俄乌冲突提升了全球能源安全风 险，许多国家开始重视并支持核电发展，包括新建项目和延寿运行现有机组。 三是人工智能高算力催生稳定电力需求，到 2030 年数据中心用电需求预计超 过日本当前总用电量，而数据中心要求 7×24 小时不间断发电，核电具备稳定 供电能力且碳排放水平不足光伏的 1/10，各科技巨头深度绑定整个核电供应链， 与核电公司签订长期购电协议。四是 SMR 小堆的发展提升了经济性和安全性， 中广核矿业参股矿山总权益资源量达 2.4 万吨铀，权益储量 1.9 万吨铀， 权益产能 1,899 吨铀。矿山开采成本较低且寿命较长，未来产量预计保 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The global nuclear power sector is at a turning point, with long-term demand expected to rise significantly, leading to an upward trend in uranium prices. The average annual new installed capacity from 2025 to 2030 is projected to reach 13 GW, corresponding to a total initial natural uranium demand of approximately 31,200 tons [1][19]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the uranium industry, backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, and is the only publicly listed pure uranium company in East Asia. It has stakes in four uranium mines in Kazakhstan and has seen strong investment returns due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company's mining production is stable, with a total equity resource of 24,000 tons of uranium and an equity capacity of 1,899 tons. Production is expected to increase from 500 tons in 2025 to 900 tons by 2029, benefiting from low-cost operations [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its sales pricing mechanism, which is expected to enhance performance significantly from 2026 onwards, as the new pricing framework increases the base price from $61.78 to $94.22 per pound of U3O8 [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Uranium Industry - The nuclear power sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by global decarbonization efforts, energy security, and advancements in small modular reactor (SMR) technology. This is expected to lead to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% in global nuclear power capacity from 2024 to 2050 [1][11]. - The supply side is facing a widening gap, with a projected increase of 15,300 tons of uranium from 2025 to 2030, which is significantly lower than the demand [1][30]. 2. Company Overview - The company is the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under China General Nuclear Power Group and has seen substantial profit growth due to rising uranium prices [2][4]. - The company’s mining operations are characterized by low production costs, which provide a competitive advantage in the market [2][3]. 3. Resource Sector - The company’s mining output is stable, with production expected to remain steady in 2025, and potential increases in capacity from 500 tons to 900 tons between 2025 and 2029 [2][3]. 4. Trade Sector - The company has benefited from a new pricing agreement that enhances its revenue potential, with significant increases in the base price for uranium sales expected to drive performance from 2026 [3][4]. - The international trade segment is positioned to improve profit margins as the company locks in favorable pricing while retaining some flexibility to benefit from rising uranium prices [3][4]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 539 million, 994 million, and 1,209 million Hong Kong dollars from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.07, 0.13, and 0.16 Hong Kong dollars [4][5].