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Is It Really the Economy, Stupid?
Morgan Stanley· 2024-08-13 16:23
M August 8, 2024 04:01 AM GMT Thematic Thursday | North America Is It Really the Economy, Stupid? 3-minute read, ~580 words Our Thematic Insights in just a few minutes. Want more? Reach out or click the links below. We think it's a reasonable question given that the economy is typically a top concern for voters heading into elections – a heuristic memorialized by political strategist James Carville's axiom that "it's the economy, stupid." The data last Friday accelerated market concerns about a slowing econ ...
Quantitative Investment Strategies:Opportunities in Quantitative Investment Strategies After Recent Market Volatility
Morgan Stanley· 2024-08-13 15:16
M Global Idea Quantitative Investment Strategies August 8, 2024 11:19 PM GMT Opportunities in Quantitative Investment Strategies After Recent Market Volatility We review the outlook for QIS after recent market volatility. We have a positive outlook for rates trend, rates long straddle replication, equity factors and some equity volatility carry strategies. We are less constructive on FX DM Carry and Equity Momentum. M We evaluate the outlook of Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) after the recent marke ...
Great Reset & Great Volatility
Morgan Stanley· 2024-08-13 15:16
M Idea Japan Equity Strategy | Japan August 6, 2024 08:00 PM GMT Great Reset & Great Volatility TOPIX P/E has tumbled to recession-phase levels. We believe the downturn in share prices will be reversed once the pessimism over the US economic outlook recedes. For now, we recommend choosing stocks from a volatility factor perspective. Key Takeaways The contrasting directions of US and Japanese monetary policy and weakness in US job figures have led to a reversal in the strategies that have prevailed in the ma ...
Our Impression About BoJ Deputy Gov. Uchida’s Speech
Morgan Stanley· 2024-08-13 15:16
M Update Japan Economics | Japan August 7, 2024 10:16 AM GMT Our Impression About BoJ Deputy Gov. Uchida's Speech BoJ Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial and capital markets remained unstable in his speech on Aug 7. It is more important to note that he wanted to clarify that his stance was not inconsistent with the bank's existing policy decision process. Key Takeaways Dep. Gov. Uchida stated that the bank would not raise its policy rates while financial an ...
Consumer Staples:Commodity Cost Tracker~ July 2024
morgan stanley· 2024-08-12 15:08
M Update Consumer Staples | Europe August 8, 2024 06:37 AM GMT Commodity Cost Tracker - July 2024 Key Takeaways MS Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index was up +9.3% y/y in July 2024 vs +11.3% y/y in June 2024 Our index was down -2.4% m/m, driven primarily by a moderation in cocoa and energy prices Excluding the Chocolate companies, our Staples Commodity Cost index was up +1% y/y and flat on a m/m basis MS Consumer Staples Commodity Cost Index is up +9.3% on a y/y basis, but - 2.4% m/m in July due to a mode ...
新药每周谈礼来32亿美元收购rphic,关注自免小分子抑制剂进展
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-15 23:16
会议主要讨论的核心内容 IBD疾病概述 - IBD是一种涉及消化道组织的长期慢性炎症性疾病,主要分为溃疡性结肠炎和克罗恩病两种类型 [1][2][3] - IBD的病因复杂,可能与遗传、免疫、饮食等因素相关,临床症状也不太有特征,诊断比较困难 [2][3] - IBD虽然大部分只会引起轻度症状,但也可能导致严重并发症,如关节炎、结肠癌等 [2][3] - 海外IBD发病率较高,国内亚洲人群相对较低,但近年来也呈上升趋势 [3] IBD治疗现状 - 目前IBD的治疗主要采用抗炎药和皮质类固醇药物,但只有10-15%的患者能够达到缓解,80%会发生慢性复发 [4] - 生物制剂如抗TNFα、抗IL12/23、抗整合素等在IBD治疗中应用广泛,市场规模巨大 [4][5][6] - 但现有治疗方案仍存在较大未满足需求,口服小分子药物成为新的研发方向 [4][7] Morphic公司及其核心产品 - Morphic公司专注于研发口服小分子整合素抑制剂,覆盖自免、心血管、代谢等多个领域 [7][8] - 其核心产品MORF-057是一种靶向α4β7的口服小分子药物,正在开展IBD适应症的临床II期研究 [8][9] - MORF-057在早期临床试验中显示出良好的疗效和安全性,有望成为新一代IBD治疗选择 [8][9][10] 行业动态 - 整合素靶点在IBD领域备受关注,多家公司都有相关产品在研 [6][10] - 从大分子注射制剂向小分子口服药物的研发趋势明显,国内也有一些公司布局这一领域 [7][10] - 上周创新药事件包括辉瑞GLP-1口服小分子、基因治疗公司UNIQA的亨廷顿病药物、Kemara公司的自免ProTech药物等 [14][15][16][17][18]
J.P. rgan baidu 萝卜快跑
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-14 21:35
Asia Pacific Equity Research 11 July 2024 Overweight Baidu.com (BIDU) BIDU, BIDU US Price: $97.94 A case study of robotaxi operation in Shanghai: 10 Jul 2024 identifying path to profitability Price Target: $175.00 PT End Date: 31 Dec 2024 Baidu’s share price has significantly outperformed the sector average as Internet measured by KWEB by 10ppt in the past 5 trading days as investors have Alex Yao AC shifted focus to its robotaxi operation, in our view. We think such a (86 21) 6106 6505 robotaxi trade on Ba ...
The myth of income, spending and financial asset growth
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-04 16:34
报告的核心观点 - 中国家庭金融资产增长仍然健康,1季度同比增长9.5%,主要由存款增长带动 [3][8][11][12] - 居民可支配收入增长也保持稳定,1季度同比增长6.2% [15] - 消费支付数据显示一线城市消费降级,二三四线城市消费升级,就业数据也显示从互联网、房地产和金融服务向制造业的转移 [18][21][22] - 家庭金融资产配置正在从存款向保险产品转移,理财产品规模也在逐步恢复 [29][30][34][36] 分组1 - 1季度家庭金融资产增长9.5%,主要由存款增长12%带动 [3][8][11][12] - 居民可支配收入增长6.2%,增速较2022年有所回升 [15] - 消费支付数据显示一线城市消费降级,二三四线城市消费升级,就业数据也显示从互联网、房地产和金融服务向制造业的转移 [18][21][22] 分组2 - 家庭金融资产配置正在从存款向保险产品转移,保险资产1季度增长9.7% [29][30] - 理财产品规模也在逐步恢复,4月已超过28万亿元 [34][36]
10 Themes For 2024
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-04 13:44
报告的核心观点 1) 日本和印度将会超越表现 [1][10] - 日本ROE将在2025年达到12%,持续的通胀和生产率提升推动了企业盈利能力 [41][42] - 印度被视为高度吸引力的市场,相对估值不如10月份极端,有利于外国直接投资和投资组合流入,支撑强劲的资本支出和利润前景 [42] 2) 美国流动性逆转 [2][12] - 2023年的表现主要由于比预期更高的流动性,但这种支撑将在2024年消退,美国股票可能会表现不佳 [12] 3) 并购和IPO复苏 [3][14][15][16] - 在经历了长期的枯竭期后,并购和二级市场活动有望反弹,收购方的资产负债表充裕 [14][15][16] 4) 天气和地缘冲突导致的供应链瓶颈 [4][18][19] - 80%的贸易流通量通过海运,被迫改道的船只将面临9天/7000公里的更长航程(超过30%) [18][19] - 这正值厄尔尼诺现象加剧之际 [18] 行业和ESG主题总结 5) 可再生能源复苏 [5][22][23] - 去碳主题估值相对于未来增长显得便宜,有望引起投资者关注 [22][23] 6) 碳捕集催化剂 [6][24][25] - 碳捕集技术经历了多次失败后,现在正在引起投资者兴趣,可能成为应对气候变化的"银弹" [24][25] 7) 汽车行业:从中国担忧到电池过剩 [7][29][30] - 2024年中国的主导地位将进一步扩大,西方整车制造商的支出和投资回报率风险很大,但可以通过缓解措施来降低 [29][30] 8) 人工智能:从生成到边缘,从使能到采用 [8][32][60][62] - 生成式AI领域的6家公司已经超越大盘40%,2024年边缘AI有更多催化剂追赶 [60][62] - 在AI采用者中,定价能力是决定阿尔法的关键因素 [32] 9) 金融科技整合和加密货币的回归 [9][64][65][66] - 2024年可能会出现更多有意义的金融科技整合,加密货币价格上涨也将推动代币化实验的兴起 [64][65][66] 10) 健康寿命延长和医疗AI [7][67][69] - 2023年GLP-1类药物的热潮过后,2024年投资者关注将转向靶向性抗体偶联药物(ADC)等新兴领域 [67][69]
JPrganUS Weekly Prospects_
Morgan Stanley· 2024-06-02 00:01
会议主要讨论的核心内容 - 上市公司或行业的最新财务和经营数据,包括收入、利润、现金流等指标的变化情况 [1][2][3] - 公司或行业的市场环境和竞争格局,包括行业政策、市场需求、竞争对手动态等 [4][5][6] - 公司或行业的发展战略和未来规划,包括新产品、新业务、并购等方面的动向 [7][8][9] - 公司或行业面临的主要风险和挑战,以及应对措施 [10][11][12] 问答环节重要的提问和回答 问题1 **Ellie Jiang 提问** 提问了公司在新兴市场的拓展计划和面临的挑战 [13] **Jiazhen Zhao 回答** 回应了公司正在采取的措施,包括加大市场投入、优化产品组合等 [14][15] 问题2 **Yang Bai 提问** 询问了公司在研发和创新方面的规划和投入情况 [16] **Jiazhen Zhao 回答** 介绍了公司在核心技术研发、新产品开发等方面的具体举措和未来规划 [17][18] 问题3 **Joyce Ju 提问** 关注了公司在环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)方面的表现和举措 [19] **Lei Chen 回答** 详细说明了公司在节能减排、员工权益保护、信息披露等ESG方面的具体做法和成效 [20][21][22]