本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research Global Precious Metals Comment 2025 Gold Outlook The gold rally continues We summarise our views on gold in this chart pack. FX Global This report has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 22. 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 2025 Gold Outlook : The rally continues Global Precious Metals ...

Disclosures & Disclaimer 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 8 January 2025 China Real Estate Equities 100 days into easing 10 key observations after 100 days into policy easing: Key stocks Company Ticker Currency Price TP Rating Upside Market cap (USDbn) 3m ADTV (USDm) CR Land 1109 HK HKD 22.15 35.60 Buy 60.7% 20.3 64 Yuexiu 123 HK HKD 4.93 8.20 Buy 66.3% 2.6 14.6 Longfor 960 HK HKD 9.90 20.50 Buy 107.1% 8.8 49.4 KE Holdings BEKE US USD 17.74 30.40 Buy 71.4% 21.4 187.6 CR Mixc 1209 HK HKD 27.60 44.20 B ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Core Mid Cap Core Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Mid Cap Core managers trailed the Russell Mid benchmark by -0.5% in 2024 (14.8% vs. 15.3%), net of fees. Despite outperforming in December, managers lagged by -0.5% during 4Q. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions added +1.1% to performance in 2024. An overweight position in Financials ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Home Appliances - **Research Firm**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited - **Date**: January 8, 2025 Core Insights - **Consumer Goods Trade-In Program**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced details for the 2025 consumer goods trade-in program, which is perceived to be better than expected due to its wider coverage and increased subsidies for air conditioning units [5][1]. - **Subsidy Expansion**: The program expands subsidy coverage from eight to twelve home appliance categories, adding microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers. Consumers can receive subsidies for up to three AC units and one item from each of the other eleven categories, capped at 20% of the retail price (maximum Rmb2,000/unit) [5][1]. - **Consumer Electronics Inclusion**: The program also includes three consumer electronics categories (smartphones, tablets, smartwatches) with a subsidy of up to 15% of the retail price (maximum Rmb500/unit) [5][1]. Company Preferences - **Investment Preference**: The report indicates a preference order for leading home appliance companies: Midea (Overweight), Gree (Overweight), and Haier (Equal Weight) [1][1]. Valuation and Price Targets - **Midea Group**: Valuation based on a sum of parts approach, with a target price of Rmb88/share, reflecting a 2024 estimated P/E of 16x, which is above its historical average [8][1]. - **Gree Electric Appliances**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 9x, slightly below its historical average, indicating a weaker growth outlook compared to previous cycles [10][1]. - **Haier Smart Home**: Target price based on a 2025 estimated P/E of 13.5x, which aligns with its historical average, highlighting its strong market position in refrigerators and washing machines [15][1]. Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Potential for a better-than-expected rebound in the Chinese property market, less competition from key players, and successful mergers and acquisitions [13][1][18][1]. - **Downside Risks**: Risks include fierce market competition, unfavorable foreign exchange movements, and execution risks related to M&A transactions [14][1][19][1]. Conclusion - The 2025 consumer goods trade-in program is expected to positively impact leading home appliance companies, with Midea, Gree, and Haier positioned favorably. The valuation methodologies and associated risks highlight the dynamic nature of the market, influenced by macroeconomic factors and competitive pressures.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Real Estate Strategy A year of volatility Year 2024 in review It was only the second year since we've started tracking the data that the variance in performance was wider by sectors than by countries. The sector variance between best and worst performing sectors was 40%, i.e. 9pp larger than the historical average, while country variance was "only" 32%, i.e. 23pp lower than the historical average, during the world's biggest ele ...

Summary of Global Energy Storage Outlook 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Energy Storage** industry, particularly the **battery market** and **electric vehicle (EV)** sales dynamics in 2024 and projections for 2025. Key Points and Arguments Battery Demand and Market Dynamics - Total battery demand is projected to grow by **30% year-on-year (y-o-y)** in 2025, driven by robust growth in **China's EV sales** and recovery in **European EV demand** due to stricter CO2 emissions standards [2][10] - In 2024, battery demand growth was also **30%**, primarily due to better-than-expected performance in **China** and **global energy storage systems (ESS)**, despite a slowdown in the US and Europe [2][10] - The **xEV sales** in China are expected to grow by **20%** in 2025, with total global xEV sales reaching **20 million units** [32][37] Regional Performance - **China** achieved an EV penetration rate of **50%** in 2024, significantly outperforming the US and Europe, where penetration rates were **10%** and **20%**, respectively [19][17] - The **US** market is anticipated to grow by **10%** y-o-y in 2025, although challenges remain due to potential policy changes and infrastructure issues [36][10] - **European EV sales** are expected to rebound with a **30%** growth in 2025, driven by new emissions regulations [35][10] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes a **60% collapse in lithium prices** and a **30% decline in battery prices**, which negatively impacted revenue and earnings for battery manufacturers, particularly in Korea [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to stabilize at **$12,000 per ton** in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 [3][10] Capacity and Utilization - Total battery capacity is projected to grow by **45%** y-o-y to **4,431 GWh** in 2025, with local capacity expected to meet demand across major economies [4][10] - Utilization rates for battery plants, particularly in China, are currently low (30-40%), but improvements are anticipated as companies focus on efficiency [4][10] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - **CATL** remains the market leader with a **35%** share, followed by **BYD** at **18%** and **LGES** at **13%** [5][10] - The report highlights **CATL** and **Samsung SDI** as top picks for investment, citing their strong growth potential and favorable valuations [6][10] Investment Implications - Despite challenges in the US and European markets, the overall outlook for battery demand remains positive, with expectations of revenue and earnings growth in 2025 [10][6] - The report recommends **Tianqi Lithium** and **CATL** as top investment opportunities, emphasizing their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][10] Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the destocking cycle in the Chinese battery value chain has largely ended, but high inventory levels in Korean and Western companies may pose short-term challenges [3][10] - The performance of battery cell makers has been better than that of battery components and lithium companies, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [21][10] This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global energy storage market, highlighting key trends, challenges, and investment opportunities for 2025.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 8, 2025 04:17 AM GMT China Internet | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: A Year of Uncertainties 20025 will likely be a year of external (tariffs, sanctions) and internal (policy, competition) uncertainties, while we expect internet companies to navigate with AI strategy, overseas expansion and capital return. Key OWs: Tencent (Top Pick), TCOM, Meituan; EWs: BABA, JD, KS, BIDU. 2025 will likely be a year of external and internal uncertainties: Externally, we see uncer ...

ab 8 January 2025 Global Research US Equity Strategy - Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Value Manager Performance - January 2025 Manager Performance vs. Russell Mid Value Mid Cap Value managers trailed the Russell Mid Value by -1.0% in 2024 (12.1% vs. 13.1%), net of fees. December was a particulary favorable month, with managers outperforming by +1.0%, and offsetting a more difficult October/November. Sector vs. Stock Impacts on Manager Performance 2024: Sector decisions neither helped nor hurt performance in 2024. Ma ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Equity Derivatives Strategy 2025 Volatility Outlook: Uncertainty reigns A new ballgame for volatility – see Macro volatility backdrop We have consolidated our multitude of new models for directional relative value and macro/market/stock-specific volatility forecasting. These are well-tested and in some cases use innovative approaches to model probability distributions that we compare to the option-implied (market) distribution ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Cautious on Broader Macro Backdrop**: The report expresses cautious optimism on the broader macroeconomic backdrop, citing lower interest rates, the Trump presidency, GLP-1 nervousness, and generalist exits as potential headwinds for the BioPharma sector. 2. **Positive on Fundamentals**: Despite the cautious macro outlook, the report remains optimistic on the fundamentals of the BioPharma sector, highlighting the potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts. 3. **Smid-Biotech Turnaround**: The report notes a potential turnaround in sentiment for Smid-Biotech, driven by a more deal-friendly administration and the approaching major patent cliffs. Key Company Picks 1. **Large Cap Pharma**: - **Eli Lilly (Buy; PT: $1,100)**: Top pick due to its leadership in GLP-1 and potential for oral GLP-1 orfoglipron to drive outperformance. - **Merck (Buy; PT: $120)**: Positive outlook following the valuation reset from Gardasil weakness, with upside potential from Keytruda, Winrevair, and Capvaxive. - **BBIO (Buy; PT: $62)**: Unique diversified Smid cap biotech with three pivotal readouts expected in mid-late '25. - **SRPT (Buy; PT: $188)**: Potential for Elevidys DMD trajectory to beat expectations and LGMD to receive more credit. - **VRTX (Buy; PT: $586)**: Poised for strong continued execution and growth from base CF business and increasing diversification across pain and pipeline. - **PTCT (Buy; PT: $71)**: Important catalysts from PKU PDUFA and Huntington's Disease program. - **ARVN (Buy; PT: $74)**: Ph3 VERITAC-2 topline data for vepdegestrant in metastatic breast cancer could support significant upside. 2. **Smid Biotech & Spec Pharma**: - **UTHR (Buy; PT: $475)**: Upside potential from IPF read-outs in 2H25. - **NBIX (Buy; PT: $162)**: Crenessity ramp could indicate a multi-bn$ peak sales opportunity. - **LEGN (Buy; PT: $65)**: Attractive valuation and potential upside from Carvykti. - **MRUS (Buy; PT: $72)**: Upside potential from peto+Keytruda update in head and neck cancer and further indication expansion in colorectal cancer. - **IDYA (Buy; PT: $50)**: Multiple de-risking clinical updates from synthetic lethality programs in 2025. - **JANX (Buy; PT: $69)**: High M&A interests and upside from JANX008 clinical updates in EGFR+ solid tumor. Key Themes 1. **Trump's Impact on BioPharma**: The report discusses the potential impact of President-elect Trump's policies on the BioPharma sector, including drug pricing, FDA regulation, and healthcare reform. 2. **Patent Cliff and M&A**: The report highlights the impending patent cliff and the potential for increased M&A activity as companies seek to replenish their pipelines. 3. **Biotech Survival of the Fittest**: The report discusses the challenges facing Biotech companies, including regulatory/policy uncertainty, positioning, and M&A activity. 4. **Commercial Biopharma Diversification**: The report emphasizes the importance of diversification for commercial-stage biopharma companies, particularly those with core assets facing patent cliffs or terminal value decline. 5. **IRA and Drug Pricing**: The report discusses the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on drug pricing and Medicare Part D reform. Conclusion The report provides a comprehensive overview of the BioPharma sector, highlighting key themes, company picks, and potential risks and opportunities. The cautious macro outlook is offset by positive fundamentals and potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts.