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东吴证券2024年三季报点评:投资改善提振业绩,投行承压仍有拖累
601555SCS(601555) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 00:50

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 10.78 CNY per share, corresponding to a 1.30x PB for 2024 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance has significantly improved due to a notable enhancement in investment business, which is expected to continue benefiting from the rising demand for services related to new productivity [2][3]. - The company reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.44 billion CNY and 1.83 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 4.98% and 4.93% respectively [3]. - The average ROE increased by 0.05 percentage points to 4.55% year-on-year [3]. - The investment income for the first three quarters rose by 26.0% to 2.503 billion CNY, primarily due to an expansion in investment scale, with an average financial investment asset size of 97.05 billion CNY, up 20% year-on-year [3]. - The third quarter alone saw investment income of 1.18 billion CNY, a substantial increase of 165.7% year-on-year and 51.9% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The investment banking business faced challenges, with a 43.4% decline in revenue to 514 million CNY due to a sluggish issuance market [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 8.44 billion CNY and net profits of 1.83 billion CNY, both showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 5% [3]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.45 CNY, 0.49 CNY, and 0.52 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates [3]. Market Environment - The report highlights that the recent policy measures from the central government have bolstered market confidence, particularly in supporting the development of new productivity [3]. - The company has established a leading position in serving small and medium-sized enterprises, leveraging opportunities in innovative bonds and other financial instruments [3]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the investment business as a key driver for performance improvement, while the investment banking sector remains under pressure [3][4]. - The anticipated marginal improvement in the issuance market is seen as a potential catalyst for future growth [3].