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吉电股份:东北火电公用事业化,转型迈向氢基能源
000875JEP(000875) 国金证券·2024-09-14 00:00

Investment Rating - Buy (First-time rating) [2] Core Investment Thesis - The company is a leading player in hydrogen-based energy among the "Big Five" power generation groups, with a planned private placement of RMB 5.54 billion, including RMB 2.285 billion for the Da'an Wind-Solar-Hydrogen-Ammonia Integration Project, which is expected to start trial production by the end of the year [2] - The company's thermal power business is showing marginal improvement, with a gross margin of RMB 0.146/kWh in 1H2024, driven by lower coal prices and reduced coal consumption [2] - The company's new energy installed capacity is 10.4GW, contributing 79% of gross profit in 1H2024, with a target of over 20GW by 2025, representing a CAGR of 28.5% from 2023 to 2025 [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.17 billion, RMB 1.43 billion, and RMB 1.76 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a target price of RMB 6.27 based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024 [2] Thermal Power Business - The company's thermal power installed capacity is 3.3GW, all of which are cogeneration units, with capacity compensation covering 55% of depreciation costs and auxiliary service compensation accounting for 21% of revenue [2] - The company's industrial steam supply price increased to RMB 40.1/GJ in 1H2024, up 4.7% YoY, reflecting marginal improvement [2] New Energy Business - The company's new energy installed capacity is 10.4GW, with a target of over 20GW by 2025, with 40% from solar and 60% from wind [2] - The company plans to add 6.6GW of new energy capacity from 2024 to 2025, with 2GW planned for 2024 [2] Hydrogen-Based Energy - The company is a pioneer in hydrogen-based energy, with the Da'an Wind-Solar-Hydrogen-Ammonia Integration Project expected to produce 180,000 tons of green ammonia annually [2] - The company has secured 5 hydrogen-based green energy projects in Jilin Province, with a total of 2.36GW of supporting wind and solar power projects [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 14.96 billion in 2024 to RMB 20.14 billion in 2026, with net profit growing from RMB 1.17 billion to RMB 1.76 billion over the same period [4] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 9.23% in 2024 to 11.66% in 2026, with a declining P/E ratio from 11.58x to 7.69x over the same period [4] Industry Context - The company is part of the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), which has a leading position in new energy among the "Big Five" power generation groups, with a target of 40GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [16] - The company's new energy installed capacity accounted for 75.9% of total capacity as of June 2024, with projects spread across 30 provinces and regions in China [16]