报告公司投资评级 - 公司投资评级为"买入" [6] 报告的核心观点 - 公司发布2024年中报，24H1实现营收88.6亿元，同比增长4.2%，归母净利润9.0亿元，同比增长4.2%；24Q2实现营收45.7亿元，同比增长1.5%，归母净利润4.5亿元，同比-6.0% [2] - 24Q2单季度啤酒销量/吨营收分别同比增长+1.5%/0.0%至91.7万千升/4981.6元/千升，高档/主流/经济类产品营收分别同比-1.9%/+5.1%/+10.7%至26.9/16.5/1.0亿元 [2] - 24Q2单季度吨成本同比+2.1%至2468.2元/千升，毛利率/销售/管理费用率同比-1.0/+1.3/-0.3pct至50.5%/17.2%/2.9%，归母净利率同比-0.8pct至9.8% [2] - 公司基本面表现稳健，过去2年持续约100%分红，董事会通过了2024年度中期利润分配方案的议案 [2] - 预计24-26年实现归母净利润13.9/14.7/15.5亿元，同比+3.8%/5.8%/5.6%，当前股价对应PE为21/20/19倍，参考可比公司给予公司24年25倍PE，对应合理价值为71.69元/股 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 盈利预测 - 预计2022A至2026E的营业收入分别为14039/14815/15372/15849/16342百万元，增长率分别为7.0%/5.5%/3.8%/3.1%/3.1% [4] - EBITDA分别为3699/3785/3933/4123/4281百万元 [4] - 归母净利润分别为1264/1337/1388/1469/1551百万元，增长率分别为8.3%/5.8%/3.8%/5.8%/5.6% [4] - EPS分别为2.61/2.76/2.87/3.03/3.20元/股 [4] - 市盈率（P/E）分别为48.79/24.06/21.15/19.99/18.93倍 [4] - ROE分别为61.5%/62.5%/59.0%/58.0%/57.7% [4] - EV/EBITDA分别为15.78/7.82/12.27/10.90/9.67 [4] 财务比率 - 毛利率分别为50.5%/49.1%/49.3%/49.7%/49.7% [12] - 净利率分别为18.4%/18.3%/18.3%/18.8%/19.2% [12] - ROE分别为61.5%/62.5%/59.0%/58.0%/57.7% [12] - ROIC分别为67.2%/68.8%/49.8%/40.1%/33.6% [12] - 资产负债率分别为71.0%/70.5%/63.0%/56.9%/52.0% [12] - 净负债比率分别为244.9%/239.2%/170.4%/132.0%/108.5% [12] - 流动比率分别为0.70/0.67/0.88/1.09/1.29 [12] - 速动比率分别为0.43/0.41/0.62/0.83/1.03 [12] - 总资产周转率分别为1.12/1.20/1.07/0.98/0.90 [12] - 应收账款周转率分别为214.30/229.23/229.23/229.23/229.23 [12] - 存货周转率分别为6.48/7.05/7.08/7.13/7.13 [12] 每股指标 - 每股收益分别为2.61/2.76/2.87/3.03/3.20元 [12] - 每股经营现金流分别为7.75/6.40/7.41/7.70/8.13元 [12] - 每股净资产分别为4.25/4.42/4.86/5.23/5.55元 [12] 估值比率 - P/E分别为48.79/24.06/21.15/19.99/18.93倍 [12] - P/B分别为29.98/15.03/12.48/11.59/10.92倍 [12] - EV/EBITDA分别为15.78/7.82/12.27/10.90/9.67 [12]