报告公司投资评级 - 报告给予中炬高新(600872.SH)买入评级,当前价格19.68元,合理价值21.70元 [3] 报告核心观点 - 公司发布2024年半年度业绩预盈公告,预告24H1收入26.20亿元,同比-1.32%;归母净利润3.15~3.78亿元,扭亏为盈 [2] - 24Q2行业需求较弱且美味鲜改革延续,公司业绩短期承压。收入端看,预告调味品业务收入较去年同期略有减少,主要由于Q2受降雨天气等影响终端需求疲软,公司渠道去库存,且行业竞争有所加剧;利润端看,24Q2扣非归母净利率中枢为8.81%,同比下滑2.99pct,主要受费用率提升影响 [2] - 预计2024-2026年公司收入54.76/62.27/71.11亿元,同比增长6.55%/13.72%/14.19%;归母净利润7.25/9.19/11.14亿元,同比变动-57.30%/+26.85%/+21.18% [7] 财务数据总结 - 2022-2026年营业收入分别为5341/5139/5476/6227/7111百万元,增长率为4.41%/-3.78%/6.55%/13.72%/14.19% [7] - 2022-2026年归母净利润分别为-592/1697/725/919/1114百万元,增长率为-179.82%/386.53%/-57.30%/26.85%/21.18% [7] - 2022-2026年毛利率分别为31.7%/32.7%/35.0%/35.2%/35.5%,净利率分别为-10.4%/33.8%/13.5%/15.2%/16.1% [11] - 2022-2026年ROE分别为-19.7%/36.1%/14.1%/15.2%/15.6%,ROIC分别为22.6%/11.0%/12.8%/14.0%/14.3% [11]