The best traders understand how investor and trader psychology can move stocks. If understood and applied correctly, technical analysis is a study of this psychology.The chart of Arm Holdings PLC – ADR ARM is no exception. That's why it's our Stock of the Day.The red line on the chart is called a Bollinger Band. It is two standard deviations above the 20-day moving average. According to statistics and probability theory, 95% of all trading should be within two standard deviations of the mean or average.This ...

投资评级与建议 盈利预测及投资建议 - Arm 作为 IP 核龙头企业,其业务矩阵不断拓展,受益于下游行业市场需求扩张与公司版税单价提升,我们看好Arm的长远发展和业绩增长。我们预计公司FY2025E - FY2027E营业收入分别为39.80/48.60/60.50亿美元,NON-GAAP净利润分别为15.29/18.07/23.80亿美元。[4] - 我们采用DCF估值法对公司价值进行测算,预计公司2025年目标市值为1629.53亿美元,对应目标价格154美元,首次覆盖,给予"增持"评级。[20] - 参考芯源系统公司的PEG,结合Arm未来增长预期,给予Arm FY2025 Forward P/E 105X,对应目标价151美元。[22] 收入预测 授权收入 - 授权收入的提升主要来源于Arm的客户向基于订阅模式协议的转变,这让Arm未来现金流更有保障,主要体现在剩余履约义务(RPOs)中。我们预计FY2025E/FY2026E/FY2027E授权收入分别为17.89/22.25/27.55亿美元,同比+25.0%/+24.4%/+23.8%。[10] 版税收入 - Arm的版税收入受到更多样化的客户群和终端市场应用的推动,版税的季度和年度波动更加稳定且可预测。我们预计版税收入未来将保持两位数的稳定增长。[12] - 智能手机方面,我们预计FY24-FY27 Arm智能手机业务版税收入年复合增长率将达18%。[11] - 消费电子方面,我们预计FY24-FY27 Arm消费电子业务版税收入年复合增长率将达40%。[14] - 基础设施方面,我们预计FY24-FY27基础设施业务版税收入年复合增长率将达50%。[15] - 汽车电子方面,我们预计FY24-FY27汽车电子业务版税收入年复合增长率将达30%。[16] - 物联网方面,我们预计FY24-FY27物联网业务版税收入年复合增长率为5%。[17] Arm的发展历程与核心竞争力 从小小橡实成长为参天大树,移动互联网时代芯片设计基石 - Arm成立于1990年,最初由Acorn、苹果及VLSI Technology共同创立,后逐步确立了以IP授权模式为主的业务模式,实现了快速发展。[25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] - Arm凭借在低功耗、高性能处理器领域的技术优势,迅速确立了在移动芯片端的领先地位,实现了业务的快速增长。[27] 移动端芯片IP为主,打造完整IP核产品线 - Arm的核心业务在于开发和授权半导体设计领域的知识产权(IP),面向的客户群体包括有意自行研发芯片的各类企业。[36][37] - Arm拥有灵活的授权模式,可根据客户需求提供不同层级的授权产品。[36] - Arm的Cortex系列处理器已成为移动市场的主导IP,涵盖从高性能计算到微控制器等不同应用场景。[38][39] - Arm正在加强GPU IP的研发,并积极布局神经处理单元(NPU)产品线,以适应AI时代的计算需求。[40][41][42] Arm架构vs x86架构,能耗优势明显 - Arm架构采用RISC设计理念,相比x86架构具有更低的能耗和更简单的硬件设计。[43][44][45][46][47][48] - Arm架构在移动设备领域占据主导地位,正逐步向PC市场渗透,得益于其在能效方面的优势。[47][48] Arm的收入模式与生态建设 持续受益于强大研究能力,建设多元IP核生态 - Arm保持高强度的研发投入,确保其技术优势,创新是Arm的核心竞争力。[55][56] - Arm拥有完备的软件生态,为开发者提供了强大的支持,如KleidiAI等工具。[51][52][53][54] 收入模式拆解:授权收入高速增长,版税收入保持稳定 - Arm的收入分为授权收入和版税收入两大部分,其中授权收入受益于订阅模式的推广而快速增长。[58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67] - Arm的版税收入受益于智能手机、云计算、汽车电子等多个领域的持续增长,具有较强的可持续性。[68][69][70][71][72][73][74] 智能手机为基础,Arm架构加速渗透云计算市场 - Arm在智能手机芯片市场占据99%以上的份额,新一代Arm v9架构的推出将进一步提升版税收入。[75][76][77] - Arm架构在云计算领域凭借出色的能效比优势,正逐步提升市占率,带动授权和版税收入的增长。[78][79][80] 端侧AI快速普及与Arm的CSS模式 Arm终端CSS:AI消费电子的最优解,助推版税收入上升 - Arm的终端CSS平台为高端消费电子设备提供了性能和能效兼备的解决方案,有助于提升版税费率。[81][82][83][84] 汽车端CSS:智能驾驶持续迭代,算力高需求抬升版税收入 - Arm推出了专门针对汽车应用的CSS平台,满足ADAS和IVI系统日益增长的算力需求,有望带动版税收入的增长。[85][86][87][88][89] AI PC时代变革:从Wintel到WoA - 随着Arm架构PC处理器的发展,WoA阵营正加速与Wintel联盟分庭抗礼,Arm凭借在能效方面的优势有望在PC市场进一步扩张。[90][91][92][93][94][95] 风险提示 - Arm China控制权风险:Arm China作为独立实体,Arm无法完全控制其运营,存在受制裁风险。[96

Key TakeawaysRaymond James initiated coverage of Arm Holdings with an "overweight" rating and a price target of $160.It was the second time this week that analysts praised Arm, with Morgan Stanley earlier making the stock its new "Top Pick."Both Raymond James and Morgan Stanley pointed to Arm's strength in generative artificial intelligence. Arm Holdings' (ARM) U.S.-listed shares rose Friday, extending a run of gains after an analyst started coverage of the chip-design company's stock with an upbeat rating. ...

Arm saw more analyst love, this time from Raymond James.Shares of semiconductor architecture company Arm Holdings (ARM 5.83%) rallied again today, up another 5.4% as of 12:43 p.m. ET.Arm had already seen a wave of analyst upgrades this week, but got even more positive news today, this time via a bullish initiation from analysts at Raymond James. An AI uplift across end marketsRaymond James started coverage on Arm today, initiating the stock with a buy rating and a $160 price target.The analysts are bullish ...

文章核心观点 - 过去30年,标普500指数年均收益10.5%,可将10万美元投资变为120万美元 [1] - 即使离退休还有10年时间,也应将部分储蓄投资于股票,而非受通胀侵蚀的其他渠道 [2] - 3只高成长股有望在未来10年内实现百倍增长,成为百万富翁制造机 [2] Cloudflare - 提供基于云的内容分发网络(CDN)和网络安全服务,加速数字内容传输 [3] - 2019年上市,2019-2023年收入复合年增长率达46% [3] - 未来3年(2023-2026年)预计收入复合年增长率为28% [4] - 需要进一步缩小亏损、拓展生态系统和扩大护城河,仍存在一定风险 [4] MicroStrategy - 原为企业软件公司,收入增长乏力 [5] - 4年前开始大量购买比特币,目前持有22.65万枚,价值约129亿美元 [5] - 如比特币价格大涨,公司估值有望大幅飙升 [6] Arm - 英国芯片设计公司,主要通过授权模式向客户提供芯片架构 [7] - 凭借更低功耗、更可定制化等优势,在移动市场占据主导地位 [7] - 2024-2027年预计收入复合年增长率达23%,受益于人工智能、汽车和云计算等新兴应用 [8] - 未来7年内如保持20%以上收入增长,有望实现近10倍涨幅 [8]

Key TakeawaysArm Holdings was awarded its latest "Top Pick" rating by Morgan Stanley, which cited demand for the chip designer's artificial intelligence (AI) products.The Morgan Stanley analysts pointed to Arm's part in the technology industry shift to edge AI.Morgan Stanley has an "overweight" rating on Arm's U.S.-traded shares, with a $175 price target.Arm's stock soared Wednesday after the release of the report. Arm Holdings (ARM) shares jumped Wednesday after Morgan Stanley analysts named the chip desig ...

Shares of Arm Holdings plc (ARM) have seen a significant drop, falling 15.5% over the past three months compared with the 0.6% decline of the broader industry. However, despite this recent decline, Arm's stock has experienced an impressive 69.3% gain year to date, suggesting that the current pullback may just be part of a broader correction. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIn its most recent trading session, ARM closed at $127.22, which is 33% lower than its 52-week high of $188.75. Additionally, the ...

Key TakeawaysShares in Arm Holdings will likely remain in focus on Tuesday after the stock surged yesterday following a report that the iPhone 16 will run on a chip based on the British company’s design. Although the stock has found buying interest this month around the 200-day moving average, it remains susceptible to further selling while trading under the closely-watched 50-day moving average.Investors should monitor key support levels on Arm's chart at $94 and $78, while watching important resistance le ...

Warren East, former CEO of Rolls Royce and Arm, speaking at a tech event in London on June 13, 2022.CAMBRIDGE, England — The U.K. is doing a bad job of commercializing technology businesses globally and needs a mindset shift from the investor community to win on the world stage, a former CEO of British chip design firm Arm said Tuesday.In a keynote speech at Cambridge Tech Week, Warren East, who led Arm between 1994 and 2013, said that there have been criticisms that lackluster growth and poor rates of GDP ...

How to Use the 200-day Moving AverageMost amateur investors suffer from “paralysis by analysis.” These investors pollute their screens with too many technical indicators and backward-looking macro data, losing the forest through the trees. From my own experience, the most valuable change I made from my early investing days to today is to simplify. Rather than seeking to add indicators, strive to remove them and only keep the most powerful tools in your investing toolbox.The most powerful indicator I have fo ...