报告公司投资评级 - 买入（维持）[1] 报告的核心观点 - 行业需求承压，盈利能力有所下滑[1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行业需求承压 - 2024年一季度小家电行业线上养生壶/电饭煲/电水壶/空气炸锅销额分别同比-4.78%/+5.3%/-7.61%/-32.11%，行业需求仍相对承压[1] - 小熊市占稳定，2024Q1小熊线上养生壶/电饭煲/电水壶/空气炸锅份额同比-0.39/-0.14/-1.04/+1.03pct至24.77%/3.44%/6.29%/5.00%[1] 盈利能力有所下滑 - 2024Q1公司毛利率同比下滑1.25pct至38.51%，判断毛利率下滑较大系竞争加剧及原材料价格变化因素所致[1] - 2024Q1销售/管理/研发/财务费率为17.85%/3.93%/3.13%/0.20%，同比变动2.29pct/0.16pct/0.61pct/0.17pct，公司整体费用率提升较大，判断系竞争加剧，费效比下降[1] - 综上，公司2024Q1净利率同比变动-0.55pct至12.63%[1] 营销促品牌形象提升 - 公司围绕“年轻人喜欢的小家电”品牌定位，全域媒体矩阵布局触达核心消费者[1] - 2023年9月，公司与吴磊代言人深度绑定，借助小熊自身内容输出及代言人影响力，相关话题上线12小时内互动量过200万[1] - 2024年3月举行“逐光成长 熊心万丈”18周年庆典暨新品发布会，发布全新升级的品牌IP形象，带来小熊旗舰产品逐光套系以及吹风机、加湿器、咖啡机、煮茶器等极具行业创新性的产品[1] 盈利预测与投资建议 - 预计2024-2026年归母净利润分别为4.74/5.47/6.31元，同增6.5%/15.4%/15.2%，维持“买入”评级[1] 财务指标 - 2022A-2026E营业收入分别为4118/4712/5190/5974/6875百万元，增长率分别为14.2%/14.4%/10.2%/15.1%/15.1%[1] - 2022A-2026E归母净利润分别为386/445/474/547/631百万元，增长率分别为36.3%/15.2%/6.5%/15.4%/15.2%[1] - 2022A-2026E EPS最新摊薄分别为2.46/2.84/3.02/3.49/4.02元/股[1] - 2022A-2026E净资产收益率分别为16.3%/16.3%/15.7%/16.0%/16.1%[1] - 2022A-2026E P/E分别为22.3/19.4/18.2/15.8/13.7倍[1] - 2022A-2026E P/B分别为3.8/3.2/2.9/2.6/2.2倍[1] 财务报表和主要财务比率 - 2022A-2026E营业收入分别为4118/4712/5190/5974/6875百万元，增长率分别为14.2%/14.4%/10.2%/15.1%/15.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E营业利润分别为487/492/543/627/721百万元，增长率分别为45.8%/1.1%/10.3%/15.4%/15.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E归属于母公司净利润分别为386/445/474/547/631百万元，增长率分别为36.3%/15.2%/6.5%/15.4%/15.2%[2] - 2022A-2026E毛利率分别为36.4%/36.6%/35.6%/35.0%/35.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E净利率分别为9.4%/9.4%/9.1%/9.2%/9.2%[2] - 2022A-2026E ROE分别为16.3%/16.3%/15.7%/16.0%/16.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E ROIC分别为12.1%/13.3%/12.6%/13.1%/13.5%[2] - 2022A-2026E资产负债率分别为51.5%/49.2%/47.5%/47.9%/45.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E净负债比率分别为-60.2%/-36.9%/-38.4%/-57.6%/-57.1%[2] - 2022A-2026E流动比率分别为1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8/1.8[2] - 2022A-2026E速动比率分别为1.4/1.5/1.4/1.4/1.4[2] - 2022A-2026E总资产周转率分别为1.0/0.9/0.9/1.0/1.0[2] - 2022A-2026E应收账款周转率分别为42.6/42.2/42.2/42.2/42.2[2] - 2022A-2026E应付账款周转率分别为1.9/1.9/1.9/1.9/1.9[2] - 2022A-2026E每股收益(最新摊薄)分别为2.46/2.84/3.02/3.49/4.02元[2] - 2022A-2026E每股经营现金流(最新摊薄)分别为3.91/4.36/2.48/6.58/3.07元[2] - 2022A-2026E每股净资产(最新摊薄)分别为14.57/16.96/18.78/21.32/24.45元[2] - 2022A-2026E P/E分别为22.3/19.4/18.2/15.8/13.7倍[2] - 2022A-2026E P/B分别为3.8/3.2/2.9/2.6/2.2倍[2] - 2022A-2026E EV/EBITDA分别为11.4/9.4/10.1/7.7/6.4倍[2]