NoDerog I have been very skeptical of The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) stock for quite a while, as the management has adopted a rather unpopular approach to grow the business through large acquisitions. It usually takes time before poor capital allocation decisions translate into the share price, and this did happen for SJM in calendar year 2023. Following the drop, I turned neutral on the stock in December, but also highlighted some ongoing risks for shareholders. Since then, SJM stock continued to dis ...

文章核心观点 - 公司本季度财报优于预期,但下调了全年业绩指引 [1] - 公司表示这些结果反映了公司在交付核心业务、成功整合Hostess Brands、实现转型、成本管控和现金流生成等方面取得的进展 [1] - 公司下调了全年销售增长指引,并下调了全年调整后每股收益指引 [1] 行业分析 - 分析师对公司股票发表了不同评级和目标价格 [2][3] - 分析师平均目标价格为129.67美元,较当前股价有14.77%的上涨空间 [3] - 近期分析师评级趋势为持有评级占主导 [4]

Jif peanut butter owner J.M. Smucker cut annual sales and profit forecasts on Wednesday, hurt by cost-conscious consumers switching to lower-priced alternatives amid sticky inflation.While the company increased prices for certain products, including frozen food, to offset soaring raw material costs, it expects lower annual sales as shoppers defer spending on pricier goods.The company has seen weaker demand for its discretionary categories, including pet food and sweet baked snacks, as lower-income consumers ...

收购和剥离业务 - 公司完成了对Hostess Brands的收购，总交易金额为54亿美元[102] - 公司出售了加拿大调味品业务和Sahale Snacks业务，分别获得净收益2530万美元和3160万美元[101][103] - 公司出售了宠物食品品牌业务，获得净收益12亿美元[104] 经营挑战 - 公司面临持续的原材料成本上涨和供应链中断的挑战，正采取措施应对[106][107][108] 财务表现 - 第一季度销售额增长18%，其中Hostess Brands业务贡献3.337亿美元[109][111] - 剔除收购和剥离影响后,第一季度销售额增长1%[111][112] - 毛利率和经营利润率分别提升至37.5%和16.4%[109][114][115] - 非GAAP调整后的毛利率和经营利润率分别为39.2%和21.1%[109][116][117] - 利息费用增加6830万美元,主要由于收购Hostess Brands相关的新增债务[118] - 所得税费用增加620万美元,主要由于税率上升至24.8%[119] 重组和整合成本 - 公司预计将产生约6.0百万美元的剥离成本，主要包括员工相关和租赁终止成本[120] - 公司预计将产生约12.0百万美元的成本来解决某些分销效率问题，主要包括其他过渡和终止费用[121] - 公司预计将产生约210.0百万美元的整合成本，包括交易费用、员工相关成本和其他过渡及终止费用[122] 分部业务表现 - 美国零售咖啡分部净销售额下降1.7百万美元,主要由于Dunkin'品牌净价格下降,部分被Café Bustelo品牌增加所抵消[127] - 美国零售冷冻手持和酱料分部净销售额增加32.8百万美元,主要由于Uncrustables三明治销量增加[128] - 美国零售宠物食品分部净销售额下降41.3百万美元,主要由于与已剥离的宠物食品品牌相关的合同制造销售下降[129] - 甜味烘焙零食分部在2025年第一季度贡献了333.7百万美元的净销售额和74.4百万美元的分部利润[130] 现金流和资本结构 - 公司自由现金流为49.2百万美元,较上年同期下降18.4百万美元[133][134] - 公司拥有2000亿美元的未偿长期债务[144] - 公司发行了35亿美元的优先票据用于收购Hostess Brands[145] - 公司有20亿美元的无担保循环信贷额度和20亿美元的商业票据计划[146] - 公司在2024年7月31日遵守所有债务契约[147] - 公司在2024年第三季度未回购任何普通股[148] - 公司在2023年第一季度回购了240万股普通股[149] - 公司将投资11亿美元在阿拉巴马州建立新的Uncrustables三明治生产设施[151] - 公司认为现金流和可用信贷额度足以满足未来12个月的现金需求[152] 非公认会计准则指标 - 公司使用非公认会计准则财务指标来评估内部业绩[155] - 公司调整后的营业利润为4.479亿美元[159] 风险因素 - 公司终止所有未到期的利率合约,导致税前损失2.398亿美元,该损失将在债务期限内摊销计入利息费用[164] - 公司使用商品衍生工具管理原材料价格波动,假设商品价格变动10%,公司可能面临3.56亿美元至3500万美元的公允价值变动[165][166] - 公司使用外汇衍生工具管理外币资产负债的汇率风险,假设汇率变动10%,对公允价值影响不大[167][168] - 公司收购Hostess Brands后能否成功整合并实现预期协同效应存在不确定性[169] - 供应链中断、原材料成本上涨、食品安全问题等因素可能对公司经营业绩产生不利影响[169] - 公司能否实现预期的成本节约和现金流目标存在不确定性[169] - 公司信用评级下调可能对公司产生负面影响[169] - 公司能否及时有效地实施价格调整存在不确定性[169] - 公司提醒投资者不要过度依赖前瞻性陈述[170]

财务数据和关键指标变化 - 公司预计全年净销售增长9%,较之前预期下调约1个百分点 [11][15] - 其中,销量/组合贡献约0.5个百分点增长,定价贡献约2个百分点增长 [15] - 毛利率预计为37.5%,较之前预期下调0.5个百分点,主要由于咖啡价格上涨导致 [36][40] 各条业务线数据和关键指标变化 - Uncrustables业务持续强劲增长,有望在2026财年实现10亿美元销售目标 [48][49] - 宠物零食业务增长放缓,主要受消费者可支配收入下降影响 [57][58] - 甜点烘焙业务在便利店渠道表现疲软,但在整体渠道仍保持市占率增长 [12][13][44][45] 各个市场数据和关键指标变化 - 咖啡业务将再次上调价格,涵盖所有品牌和渠道,以应对原料成本上涨 [40][41][54][55] - Dunkin'品牌在竞争压力下表现相对较弱 [64][65] 公司战略和发展方向及行业竞争 - 公司对Hostess品牌前景仍保持信心,将继续推进整合并加大营销投入 [60][61][62][85] - 公司看好甜点烘焙和宠物零食等细分市场的长期增长潜力 [44][45][57][58] 管理层对经营环境和未来前景的评论 - 管理层认为当前消费者可支配收入下降对甜点烘焙和宠物零食等更多discretionary品类产生一定影响 [11][12][13][57][58] - 但公司整体业务保持良好韧性,有信心实现2026财年的盈利增长目标 [34][88] 其他重要信息 - 公司将继续优化营销投入,将重点放在Uncrustables、Jif花生酱巧克力等增长动力上 [29][31] - 公司已完成Hostess品牌的整合,将在未来一年内实现全面整合 [29][62] 问答环节重要的提问和回答 问题1 **Andrew Lazar 提问** 公司为何下调全年可比销售增长预期约1个百分点,主要原因是什么 [11][12][13] **Mark Smucker 回答** 主要是受到消费者可支配收入下降影响,导致甜点烘焙和宠物零食等更多discretionary品类销售放缓 [12][13] 问题2 **Ken Goldman 提问** Hostess业务今年是否仍将对EPS产生正面贡献 [21][22] **Tucker Marshall 回答** 由于销售预期下调,Hostess业务今年将对EPS产生一定摊薄影响,约5-10美分 [22] 问题3 **Robert Moskow 提问** 公司为何下调营销投入占比,这是否会影响Hostess品牌的推广 [25][29][31] **Mark Smucker 回答** 公司整体营销投入仍将略有增加,但Hostess品牌的营销投入将主要集中在下半年,以配合新的广告创意和品牌定位 [29][31]

Key TakeawaysJ.M. Smucker reduced its full-year outlook Wednesday as inflation cut into consumer discretionary spending.Fiscal 2025 first-quarter revenue was also slightly below estimates.CEO Mark Smucker explained that the pullback by consumers has particularly hit sales of its Hostess products. Shares of J.M. Smucker (SJM) dropped Wednesday after the food maker's quarterly sales came in slightly below forecasts and it cut its full-year guidance as inflation limited consumer spending for its products. The ...

The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) posted first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, wherein the top and bottom lines increased year over year, and earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company lowered its guidance for fiscal 2025 due to the dynamic consumer landscape and a rise in green coffee costs. Shares of SJM have dipped more than 4% in the pre-market trading session following the release.On the brighter side, J. M. Smucker’s ability to achieve net sales and earnings growth despite a tough con ...

Smucker (SJM) reported $2.13 billion in revenue for the quarter ended July 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.7%. EPS of $2.44 for the same period compares to $2.21 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.13 billion, representing a surprise of -0.42%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +11.93%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $2.18.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wall Street ex ...

Smucker (SJM) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.44 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.21 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 11.93%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this food maker would post earnings of $2.32 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.66, delivering a surprise of 14.66%.Over the last four quarters, the company has su ...

FISCAL 2025 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION August 28, 2024 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Net sales increased 18%. Comparable net sales (A) increased 1%. Net income per diluted share was $1.74. Adjusted earnings per share was $2.44, an increase of 10%. Free cash flow was $49.2 million, compared to $67.6 million in the prior year. Updated full-year fiscal 2025 financial outlook. 2 (A) Excludes the noncomparable impact to net sales of the Hostess Brands acquisition, divestitures, and foreign currency exch ...