China Machinery_ Forklifted by Electrification, Overseas Forays_ Initiate Hangcha at Buy, Heli at Neutral
China Securities·2024-11-04 01:16

Here are the key points from the company and industry research: Hangcha Group: - Hangcha Group is a leading Chinese forklift manufacturer, ranking 2 in China and 8 globally in 2022. - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio covering 1-48t ICE and 0.75-48t electric forklifts, as well as AGVs. - Hangcha has been expanding its overseas sales network, with overseas revenue growing at a 28% 5-year CAGR from 2018-2023. Overseas sales now account for 42% of total revenue. - The company has focused on R&D for new energy forklifts, developing lithium-ion battery products in partnership with CATL. - Hangcha's revenue and net profit posted 11% and 19% CAGRs respectively from 2013-2023. - We model 11% and 13% revenue and net profit CAGRs for Hangcha in 2024-2026, driven by electrification, overseas expansion and intralogistics opportunities. Anhui Heli: - Anhui Heli is the 1 forklift manufacturer in China and 7 globally in 2022. - The company offers a wide range of 0.2-46t ICE and electric forklifts, intelligent logistics systems, and port equipment. - Heli has also been expanding its overseas footprint, with overseas revenue growing at a 28% 5-year CAGR from 2018-2023. Overseas sales now account for 36% of total revenue. - We model 11% and 12% revenue and net profit CAGRs for Heli in 2024-2026, driven by electrification, overseas markets and intralogistics transformation. - We rate Heli at Neutral with a TP of Rmb19, as the current valuation fairly reflects the company's earnings growth outlook. Industry Trends: - The global forklift market has grown at an 8% 10-year CAGR from 2013-2023, driven by manufacturing, logistics and e-commerce growth. - China accounts for 36% of global forklift sales, growing at a 14% 10-year CAGR. - Electrification is a key trend, with China's electric forklift penetration rising from 49% in 2018 to 68% in 2023. - Chinese forklift companies are expanding overseas, leveraging cost and product advantages from electrification. - Intralogistics and warehouse automation present a potentially doubling of the addressable market for traditional forklift players.