Asia EM Equity Strategy_ US Election and 2025 Policy Playbook
ray dalio·2024-09-27 00:38

Here is a summary of the key points from the research report: Tariffs and US-China Policy: - The Trump campaign has proposed tariffs ranging from 10% across-the-board to 60% on China. This could lead to broader decoupling between the US and China. - A 10% universal tariff would negatively impact US growth and inflation, with the largest impact on electronics, furniture, apparel, and metals. - China and the EU are more likely than Mexico to retaliate, with China potentially relying less on RMB depreciation and more on supply chain diversification. - Mexico could be favorably positioned under a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, as it has benefited from US-China trade tensions. Climate and EV Policy: - A full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is unlikely, but a partial repeal or limiting of subsidies is possible under a Republican administration. - This could negatively impact Asia/EM clean tech and EV supply chain names, including LG Energy Solution. China battery players like CATL could also be impacted by broader US-China decoupling. - A US carbon border adjustment mechanism is possible and would likely target China. - The report recommends favoring sustainability stocks with more domestic exposure, such as NARI Technology and Kansai Electric Power. China Equity Strategy: - China's equity market has minimal direct revenue exposure to the US at 3%, but tariff hikes could still increase market uncertainty and negatively impact valuations. - The report suggests adding exposure to defensive sectors like materials, utilities, telecoms, and industrials, as well as SOE reform beneficiaries and "Going Global" thematic names. Other Asia/EM Equity Impacts: - Korea remains sensitive to US elections given its economic recoupling with the US. The report highlights potential impacts on the EV battery supply chain and semiconductors. - Latin America could see mixed impacts, with Mexico facing nearshoring risks but potential agricultural export benefits, while Brazil could benefit from rising US-China tensions. The report provides detailed stock screens and analysis across these key policy areas and their implications for Asia/EM equities.