新产品和新技术研发 - AI领域的新变化带来投资机会[1] - Chat GPT推出搜索引擎，探索商业化变现[1] - OpenAI与搜索引擎深度结合，提升用户体验[2] - SORA工具生成视频，降低创作者门槛，加速制作流程[4] - SORA工具模拟人类记忆，开辟视频制作新方向[4] - 大模型与搜索、电商等领域结合，垂直细分市场[5] - 海内外多模态大模型推出，鱼料需求量增大[8] 未来展望 - AI行情预计在五月份会有较大波动[6] - AI领域布局看好焦点科技、一点天下等公司[8] - IP类公司在中长期逻辑下最受益，港股粤文等公司业绩改善[9]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 17 April 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Flows & Liquidity A repeat of last August? Global Markets Strategy Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou AC (44-20) 7134-7815 nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com J.P. Mo ...

J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research 17 April 2024 Oil Demand Tracker Global flight activity surpasses pre-pandemic levels for the first time ever • Our high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil Global Commodities Research consumption so far in April averaged 101.0 mbd, 200 kbd below our published Prateek Kedia AC estimates (Figure 1). On a year-over-year basis, demand growth in April is (1-646) 326 1124 tracking at 1.46 mbd against our expectations of a 1.7 mbd increase. From the ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 April 2024 Global Strategy Global Strategy Global leveraged loans look set to outperform Global despite fundamental concerns as rate cuts get James Martin Strategist pushed out james.martin@ubs.com +1-212-713 7960 Matthew Mish, CFA Strategist Summary of Key Takeaways: matthew.mish@ubs.com ˜ US and European Leveraged Loans are outperforming other credit classes this year, +1-203-719 1242 but valuations still look attractive versus HY counterparts Julien Conzano Strategi ...

会议主要讨论的核心内容 - 1Q24年S&P 500指数的收益预期为3.2%收入增长和4.7%利润增长 [1][2][3] - 科技、金融、非周期性消费行业的利润增长表现较好,而能源和材料行业利润下降较多 [1][5] - 前6大科技公司预计利润增长42.2%,而剔除这些公司后,S&P 500指数利润下降1.7% [1] - 1Q24年整体盈利超预期9.3%,73%的公司超预期 [2] - 未来5个交易日内,37.4%的S&P 500市值公司将发布业绩 [3] 问答环节重要的提问和回答 问题1 **Ellie Jiang 提问** 能否详细解释一下科技行业和其他行业的利润增长差异?[68] **Jiazhen Zhao 回答** 科技行业利润增长强劲,主要得益于大型科技公司的表现。而其他行业如能源、材料则受到成本上升等因素的拖累,利润增长较弱。[69] 问题2 **Yang Bai 提问** 您认为未来几个季度S&P 500指数的盈利趋势如何?[72] **Jiazhen Zhao 回答** 根据历史趋势和当前预测,S&P 500指数的盈利增长有望在未来几个季度逐步恢复,但增速可能会有所放缓。[73] 问题3 **Joyce Ju 提问** 公司对于能源和材料行业的投资机会有何看法?[75] **Lei Chen 回答** 尽管能源和材料行业近期业绩承压,但考虑到油价上涨等因素,我们认为这些行业未来可能出现正面的业绩惊喜。建议投资者关注这些行业的投资机会。[76]

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 19 April 2024 Global Rates Strategy Interest Rates Rates Map: Pricing risk of US "no landing" Europe including UK Emmanouil Karimalis Strategist ˜ Market's increasing confidence about a "no landing" scenario for the US emmanouil.karimalis@ubs.com +44-20-7567 8000 economy, coupled with the ECB's readiness to cut rates in June, suggests that the divergence between US and EUR rates is likely to persist for longer. Reinout De Bock Strategist ˜ While the current market pricing ...

M Idea April 16, 2024 09:00 PM GMT Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Daniel K Blake Equity Strategist Alpha, Beta, Thematic Biweekly Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.com + 65 6834-6597 Jonathan F Garner Equity Strategist – Navigating Higher Rates, Jonathan.Garner@morganstanley.com + 65 6834-8172 Kristal Ji Equity Strategist Elections and Geopolitics Kristal.Ji@morganstanley.com + 65 6834-6949 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Crystal Ng Asia and EM equities are adjusting to a ...

M Update April 19, 2024 04:57 PM GMT China Quantitative Strategy | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Gilbert Wong, CFA Quantitative Strategist Chinese Growth/Tech – Active Gilbert.Wong@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7102 Laura Wang Equity Strategist Fund Flows and Short Interest Laura.Wang@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6853 Jason Ng, CFA Quantitative Strategist Jason.Dl.Ng@morganstanley.com +852 2848-8845 We observed that active long-only managers resumed net selling on Chinese Growth/Tech segment from M ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 17 April 2024 APAC Economic Perspectives Economics ASEAN: Oil, the Fed, and central bank reaction Asia functions Grace Lim Economist grace-k.lim@ubs.com +65-6495 5965 Risks to inflation and US rate cuts imply bar to easing is higher Rohit Arora Events of the past few weeks have significant implications for ASEAN central bank Strategist reaction functions. Given a resilient US economy and sticky inflation, the Fed is unlikely rohit-b.arora@ubs.com +65-6495 5232 to cut in a ...

全世界都在增持美国资产 Franklin Templeton 2024 年 04 月 23 日 注：2000 年代起，随着美国股市的熊市和中国的崛起，美国私营部门在海外进行了大 量投资。这让美国成为全球私营部门的一个相当大的净债权国。然而，过去的 10 年， 随着美国经历经济和资本市场的表现，同时中国经济模式的转变和欧洲的主权和银行 双重危机，降低了这两个地区的增长预期。美国私营部门资本不断流入，成为超配。 然而，在美国资产持有比例超配的情况下，如果有任何失望的结果，就会有大量资金 退出美国市场。 正文： 2000 年代起，随着美国股市的熊市和中国的崛起，美国私营部门在海外进行了大量投 资，以利用更具吸引力的投资机会。随着时间的推移，这一趋势导致美国净收入余额 大幅改善，即美国海外投资收入减去向外国投资者支付的美国资产之间的差额（见图 表1）。 尽管美国总体上仍然是世界的净债务国，因为外国央行仍持有大量美国国债，但它已 成为全球私营部门的一个相当大的净债权国。有必要了解未来的资本流动和市场影响， 重要的是私营部门实体的决定。到2012年，私营部门对美元持有相当大的空头头寸。 图表1：美国净收入余额 ...